{"chamber":"senate","model":"senate_live_v2 (TabPFN on race polls + fundamentals for unpolled seats)","control":{"p_dem_control":0.494975,"expected_dem_seats":50.381325,"range_80pct":[47,54],"seats_needed":51,"as_of":"2026-10-10","change_since":{"from":"2026-01-15","delta_points":47.2}},"marginals":{"sum_of_published":15.4,"note":"sum_of_published will not equal expected_dem_seats, for two separate reasons. (1) Published probabilities are clamped to [0.01, 0.99], which moves the sum in either direction depending on how many seats sit at each end. (2) Seats with their own district polling report that poll here, but the chamber model does not consume district polls — the blend failed its preregistered test — so expected_dem_seats is computed from fundamentals across all seats. The expectation is the model's output; the seat list is the best per-seat estimate.","poll_driven_seats_excluded_from_expectation":24},"counts":{"seats":35,"from_polls":24,"from_fundamentals":6,"no_forecast":5},"basis":{"own_race_polls":24,"national_generic_ballot":false,"note":"Seats with their own polling are forecast from it. The rest use state presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment."},"biggest_movers":[{"race_id":"2026_SEN_GA","delta_points":43.1,"toward":"D"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_MI","delta_points":42.3,"toward":"D"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_NH","delta_points":33.7,"toward":"D"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_LA","delta_points":-31,"toward":"R"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_MS","delta_points":-26.2,"toward":"R"}],"seats":[{"race_id":"2026_SEN_AL","location":"AL","state_name":"Alabama","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":2,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/al"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_AK","location":"AK","state_name":"Alaska","p_dem_win":0.3273386686,"rating":"Lean R","source":"polls","n_polls":11,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ak"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_AR","location":"AR","state_name":"Arkansas","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":3,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ar"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_CO","location":"CO","state_name":"Colorado","p_dem_win":0.9867,"rating":"Safe D","source":"fundamentals","n_polls":0,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/co"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_DE","location":"DE","state_name":"Delaware","p_dem_win":0.99,"rating":"Safe D","source":"fundamentals","n_polls":0,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/de"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_GA","location":"GA","state_name":"Georgia","p_dem_win":0.99,"rating":"Safe D","source":"polls","n_polls":5,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ga"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_ID","location":"ID","state_name":"Idaho","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":3,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/id"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_IL","location":"IL","state_name":"Illinois","p_dem_win":0.99,"rating":"Safe D","source":"polls","n_polls":1,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/il"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_IA","location":"IA","state_name":"Iowa","p_dem_win":0.4035488517,"rating":"Toss-up","source":"polls","n_polls":25,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ia"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_KS","location":"KS","state_name":"Kansas","p_dem_win":0.3135252839,"rating":"Lean R","source":"polls","n_polls":12,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ks"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_KY","location":"KY","state_name":"Kentucky","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":1,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ky"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_LA","location":"LA","state_name":"Louisiana","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":2,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/la"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_ME","location":"ME","state_name":"Maine","p_dem_win":0.5019269238,"rating":"Toss-up","source":"polls","n_polls":11,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/me"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_MA","location":"MA","state_name":"Massachusetts","p_dem_win":0.99,"rating":"Safe D","source":"polls","n_polls":4,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ma"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_MI","location":"MI","state_name":"Michigan","p_dem_win":0.8360432621,"rating":"Lean D","source":"polls","n_polls":19,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/mi"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_MN","location":"MN","state_name":"Minnesota","p_dem_win":0.9271993564,"rating":"Likely D","source":"polls","n_polls":5,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/mn"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_MS","location":"MS","state_name":"Mississippi","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":2,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ms"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_MT","location":"MT","state_name":"Montana","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":5,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/mt"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_NE","forecast":null,"no_forecast":"candidate_off_ballot","url":"https://votepredictor.com/races/2026_SEN_NE"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_NH","location":"NH","state_name":"New Hampshire","p_dem_win":0.9312537677,"rating":"Likely D","source":"polls","n_polls":5,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/nh"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_NJ","location":"NJ","state_name":"New Jersey","p_dem_win":0.9842,"rating":"Safe D","source":"fundamentals","n_polls":0,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/nj"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_NM","location":"NM","state_name":"New Mexico","p_dem_win":0.99,"rating":"Safe D","source":"polls","n_polls":1,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/nm"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_NC","location":"NC","state_name":"North Carolina","p_dem_win":0.9755095008,"rating":"Safe D","source":"polls","n_polls":10,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/nc"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_OK","forecast":null,"no_forecast":"candidate_off_ballot","url":"https://votepredictor.com/races/2026_SEN_OK"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_OR","location":"OR","state_name":"Oregon","p_dem_win":0.99,"rating":"Safe D","source":"fundamentals","n_polls":0,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/or"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_RI","location":"RI","state_name":"Rhode Island","p_dem_win":0.99,"rating":"Safe D","source":"polls","n_polls":3,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/ri"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_SC","forecast":null,"no_forecast":"candidate_off_ballot","url":"https://votepredictor.com/races/2026_SEN_SC"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_SD","forecast":null,"no_forecast":"candidate_off_ballot","url":"https://votepredictor.com/races/2026_SEN_SD"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_TN","location":"TN","state_name":"Tennessee","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":1,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/tn"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_TX","location":"TX","state_name":"Texas","p_dem_win":0.601887857,"rating":"Toss-up","source":"polls","n_polls":30,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/tx"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_VA","forecast":null,"no_forecast":"candidate_off_ballot","url":"https://votepredictor.com/races/2026_SEN_VA"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_WV","location":"WV","state_name":"West Virginia","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"fundamentals","n_polls":0,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/wv"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_WY","location":"WY","state_name":"Wyoming","p_dem_win":0.01,"rating":"Safe R","source":"fundamentals","n_polls":0,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/wy"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_FL","location":"FL","state_name":"Florida","p_dem_win":0.0132784801,"rating":"Safe R","source":"polls","n_polls":8,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/fl"},{"race_id":"2026_SEN_OH","location":"OH","state_name":"Ohio","p_dem_win":0.5715674102,"rating":"Toss-up","source":"polls","n_polls":18,"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate/oh"}],"url":"https://votepredictor.com/senate"}