U.S. House

Six states redrew their congressional maps for 2026 — TX, CA, MO, OH, NC, UT — so this forecast applies each redrawn district's new 2024-presidential lean (131 districts) instead of the old lines, with the national environment added as a uniform swing from the current generic ballot (D+5.0, swing D+4.7).

Model: the district-fundamentals margin model validated against 538 (trained on the boundary-aligned 2022+2024 cycles), + uniform national swing. New-map leans are 2024 presidential margins on the enacted lines (sourced per district; CA/TX/OH/MO/NC/UT). The control and seat-total estimates are more robust than individual toss-up calls: seats with a large 2024 presidential-vs-House split (e.g. South Florida / South Texas Hispanic districts, where Trump ran well ahead of House Republicans) read too Democratic here, because the lean is the 2024 presidential margin. A consistent-lean retrain is the next refinement.