U.S. House
All 435 districts are forecast from fundamentals — district partisan lean, incumbency, and the national environment — since few are polled. Predicted margins drive the control simulation.
2026 on the enacted maps (mid-decade redistricting)
Six states redrew their congressional maps for 2026 — TX, CA, MO, OH, NC, UT — so this forecast applies each redrawn district's new 2024-presidential lean (131 districts) instead of the old lines, with the national environment added as a uniform swing from the current generic ballot (D+5.2, swing D+4.9).
| Closest districts | Lean (2024 pres) | Pred margin | P(Dem) | Map |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-27 | R+11.3 | D+0.3 | 52% | unchanged |
| MN-1 | R+11.2 | D+0.3 | 52% | unchanged |
| WI-1 | R+4.2 | R+0.5 | 47% | unchanged |
| VA-1 | R+5.2 | D+0.5 | 53% | unchanged |
| CO-5 | R+9.2 | R+0.6 | 46% | unchanged |
| PA-10 | R+4.8 | D+0.6 | 53% | unchanged |
| WI-3 | R+6.5 | D+0.9 | 55% | unchanged |
| CO-3 | R+9.5 | R+1.0 | 44% | unchanged |
| OH-10 | R+7.0 | D+1.5 | 59% | new 2026 |
| IA-1 | R+6.8 | D+1.6 | 59% | unchanged |
| PA-8 | R+6.8 | D+1.6 | 59% | unchanged |
| CA-35 | D+7.8 | D+2.0 | 61% | new 2026 |
| AZ-4 | D+7.8 | D+2.0 | 61% | unchanged |
| OH-15 | R+10.0 | R+2.1 | 38% | new 2026 |
| NC-11 | R+10.0 | R+2.1 | 38% | new 2026 |
| VA-7 | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | 63% | unchanged |
Model: the district-fundamentals margin model validated against 538 (trained on the boundary-aligned 2022+2024 cycles), + uniform national swing. New-map leans are 2024 presidential margins on the enacted lines (sourced per district; CA/TX/OH/MO/NC/UT). The live cards below still use the pre-redistricting production model. The control and seat-total estimates are more robust than individual toss-up calls: seats with a large 2024 presidential-vs-House split (e.g. South Florida / South Texas Hispanic districts, where Trump ran well ahead of House Republicans) read too Democratic here, because the lean is the 2024 presidential margin. A consistent-lean retrain is the next refinement.
Expected Democratic seats: 224 of 435 (80% range 213–236). A majority is 218.
National signal: special elections
D+12.5Across the 2025–26 special elections, Democrats are running ahead of the seats' 2024 presidential margins by 12.5 points — the strongest reading since 2018. Special-election overperformance has historically tracked the House environment well (2018 D+10.6 → wave; 2022 R−3.7 → muted). It corroborates the forecast but isn't a model input — with only a few cycles of data it doesn't improve the model.
Battleground districts (44)
Showing the competitive districts; safe seats (the large majority) are folded into the control simulation but omitted here.