2026 election forecast
Calibrated win probabilities for the competitive 2026 Senate and Governor races — from a TabPFN model trained on 25 years of polls and outcomes, updated from live polling. Forecast as of .
Expected Democratic seats: 49 (80% range 46–52). Need 51 for control.
Polymarket46%Dem control · model 27%· comparison only
Expected Democratic seats: 224 (80% range 213–236). Need 218 for control.
Polymarket84%Dem control · model 77%· comparison only
How the forecast has moved
Each chamber's control probability, with the model rerun as it would have read on every date — the Senate from the race polls available then, the House from the national generic ballot.
Senate
Republicans 73% to control — dashed line is even odds.
House
Democrats 77% to control — dashed line is even odds.
U.S. Senate
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On Thursday’s edition of NBC’s “Meet the Press NOW,” Maine House Speaker Ryan Fecteau (D) said that the overlooking of prior allegations against Graham Platner and his Nazi tattoo “speaks to the frustration people have. They’re looking for someone who’s The p…
Do you want to know how Maine got stuck with Graham Platner? Meet the two morons who vetted him
The scandal facing embattled Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner of Maine has been met with some skepticism on the right after a new sexual assault allegation further engulfed his now seemingly suspended campaign, even as prominent Republicans and…
The Maine Democrat Party successfully pressured Graham Platner to step down. Not because of his Nazi tattoo or his alleged physical abuse of a former (Republican) girlfriend. It’s not even because he mocked a teenager’s failed suicide attempt. Heck, it’s not …
Maine Republican Senator Susan Collins' carefully constructed re-election strategy collapsed following Democrat Graham Platner's abrupt exit from the Senate race due to multiple credible allegations of sexual misconduct and assault, according to a new report.…
Graham Platner announced he's suspending his campaign leaving Maine Democrats scrambling for a candidate to take on Senator Susan Collins.
Democrats in Maine are already competing to get their name on the ballot and take on incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in November.
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Thousands of Haitian and Syrian immigrants with Temporary Protected Status are close to losing their ability to work in the U.S. because of a recent ruling by the Supreme Court.
The terminations leave the bipartisan EAC with no commissioners and an uncertain future. It’s unclear if Trump will move to appoint new members to the commission.
Most-recent headlines about the 2026 candidates and the Supreme Court, via NewsAPI.