Who controls Congress after November?
Win probabilities for every competitive 2026 race, from a model trained on 25 years of polls and results — and graded in public against everyone else who calls elections.
Senate →
100 seats · 51 to winDemocrats end up with 51 seats on average — 47 to 54 in four scenarios out of five. They need 51.
House →
435 seats · 218 to winDemocrats end up with 223 seats on average — 203 to 244 in four scenarios out of five. They need 218.
Governor →
36 states · 29 forecast12 look safe or likely Democratic and 10 safe or likely Republican, with 1 genuine toss-ups. The other 7 states on the ballot have no polls yet; 6 of them carry a fundamentals-only forecast on the Governor page, and 1 publish no forecast.
How the forecast has moved
Each chamber's control probability, with the model rerun as it would have read on every date — the Senate from the race polls available then, the House from the national generic ballot.
Senate
D +52 since JanuaryHouse
D +5 since JanuaryRaces that will decide it
all 59 races →The six closest contests. Anything inside ten points can go either way.
On the campaign trail
candidates & the courts
How to read these numbers
A probability is not a prediction. When this model says 70%, it means the race looks like ones where that side won about seven times in ten — and lost the other three. Those three happen. The probabilities are calibrated, which is a claim you can check: every past forecast is scored on the track-record board. Read the methodology →