VotePredictor

How American politics has shifted

Two of the three branches, on a shared timeline since 1946. Congress is measured by DW-NOMINATE — the standard left–right scale, built to be comparable across eras — and the Supreme Court by its conservative-vote share each term. Both come straight from the source records (Voteview and the Supreme Court Database); no modeling.

Congress pulled apart

The median Democrat and median Republican in each chamber. The two lines barely differed a generation ago and now sit far apart — the House party gap has widened from 0.50 to 0.93. That spreading is polarization.

House

Democratic medianRepublican median
-0.50-0.250.00+0.25+0.5019501960197019801990200020102020← liberal · conservative →

Senate

Democratic medianRepublican median
-0.50-0.250.00+0.25+0.5019501960197019801990200020102020← liberal · conservative →

The Court's center of gravity

The share of cases the majority decided in the conservative direction each term — the outcome that actually sets the law — with the share of individual justice-votes shown fainter for context. The Warren Court decided barely a third of cases conservatively in the 1960s; the Court has ruled right of even since the 1970s. Above the dashed line, the majority leaned conservative that term.

Cases decided conservativeJustice-votes cast conservative
30%40%50%60%19501960197019801990200020102020evenly split

By issue area

The share of cases decided conservatively, one panel per issue area on a shared scale. They don't move together — the Court can swing right on criminal cases while holding steadier on economic ones. The bold line is a smoothed trend; the faint line is the noisier term-by-term outcome.

Criminal Procedure

30%50%70%19501960197019801990200020102020evenly split

Civil Rights

30%50%70%19501960197019801990200020102020evenly split

First Amendment

30%50%70%19501960197019801990200020102020evenly split

Economic Activity

30%50%70%19501960197019801990200020102020evenly split

Sources & caveats

Congress: Voteview DW-NOMINATE first-dimension party medians per Congress. SCOTUS: Supreme Court Database conservative-direction share of case decisions per term (19462023), with justice-vote share for context. The two use different scales and shouldn't be read off one axis — hence separate panels. DW-NOMINATE is designed for cross-era comparison; the SCDB conservative coding is consistent across the period.

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