VotePredictor

The Supreme Court

The current court: who sits on it, how they vote, where their cases come from, and what our per-justice model expects case by case. The model predicts each justice's vote from what's known before a decision (accuracy 65.3% vs a 60.6% baseline, walk-forward 19702023) — the full backtest, the academic benchmark, and the model zoo live on the record page.

The model's record — and this term

Overall accuracy from the walk-forward backtest (19702023), then this term's live scoreboard against the FantasySCOTUS prediction crowd — and both sides' calls on the cases still pending.

65.3%
justice votes called right (baseline 60.6%)
65.0%
case outcomes called right (baseline 64.5%)
53,264
justice votes backtested
54
terms, strictly walk-forward
20/24
our model, this term (83%)
23/24
FantasySCOTUS crowd (96%)
24
cases decided so far
3
still pending
Trump v. Slaughter
Judicial Power · No. 25-332
65%
our model
63%
FantasySCOTUS
72%
consensus
Predicted vote for the petitioner, by justice
Roberts 75%Thomas 71%Alito 76%Sotomayor 44%Kagan 45%Gorsuch 68%Kavanaugh 75%Barrett 73%Jackson 57%
West Virginia v. B.P.J.
Civil Rights · No. 24-43
65%
our model
71%
FantasySCOTUS
56%
consensus
Predicted vote for the petitioner, by justice
Roberts 73%Thomas 81%Alito 78%Sotomayor 40%Kagan 42%Gorsuch 69%Kavanaugh 75%Barrett 73%Jackson 55%
Little v. Hecox
Civil Rights · No. 24-38
65%
our model
68%
FantasySCOTUS
75%
consensus
Predicted vote for the petitioner, by justice
Roberts 73%Thomas 81%Alito 78%Sotomayor 40%Kagan 42%Gorsuch 69%Kavanaugh 75%Barrett 73%Jackson 55%

Probabilities are P(petitioner wins) — the side that brought the appeal. Highlighted justices are predicted to vote for the petitioner. "FantasySCOTUS" is the crowd average from fantasyscotus.net; consensus blends our model with the crowd (and markets when priced), weighted by each source's track record on this term's decided cases.

The bench — ideology

Sotomayor-2.8Jackson-2.0Kagan-1.4Roberts+0.6Kavanaugh+0.8Barrett+1.0Gorsuch+1.9Alito+2.4Thomas+3.6← liberalconservative →

Position is each justice's Martin–Quinn score (higher = more conservative). The Martin–Quinn data feed is currently offline, so these are the last published values and are approximate; the live feed will replace them when it returns.

The sitting nine

Each justice profiled from their entire voting record: ideology (share of conservative vs liberalvotes), how often they land in the majority, their record on one-vote-margin (5–4) decisions — the swing-vote tell — and how predictable the model finds them. Each card adds the model's predicted votes on the pending cases and the justice's most recent majority opinions.

John G. RobertsCHIEF
Appointed by Republican · terms 20052023 · 1,407 cases
Lean conservative
44% liberal56% conservative
90%
in the majority
65%
majority on 5–4 (n=250)
68%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter75% petitioner
West Virginia v. B.P.J.73% petitioner
Little v. Hecox73% petitioner
Recent majority opinions · 138 career
Trump v. United States (2023, 6–3, decided liberal)

The Court decided whether and to what extent a former President enjoys presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office.

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (2023, 6–2, decided conservative)

The Court considered whether to overrule Chevron deference, but the case was dismissed as improvidently granted, leaving Chevron deference intact.

Clarence Thomas
Appointed by Republican · terms 19912023 · 2,714 cases
Conservative
35% liberal65% conservative
80%
in the majority
62%
majority on 5–4 (n=487)
64%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter71% petitioner
West Virginia v. B.P.J.81% petitioner
Little v. Hecox81% petitioner
Recent majority opinions · 252 career
Diaz v. United States (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court decided whether Federal Rule of Evidence 702 requires a district court to make an express finding that the expert's testimony was based on sufficient facts or data, and the Court ruled that it does not.

Garland v. Cargill (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that the ATF exceeded its statutory authority by classifying bump stocks as machineguns.

Samuel A. Alito
Appointed by Republican · terms 20052023 · 1,381 cases
Lean conservative
38% liberal62% conservative
82%
in the majority
59%
majority on 5–4 (n=248)
66%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter76% petitioner
West Virginia v. B.P.J.78% petitioner
Little v. Hecox78% petitioner
Recent majority opinions · 127 career
Campos-Chaves v. Garland (2023, 5–4, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that a single-document notice to appear for a removal hearing is not required to establish jurisdiction, reversing the Ninth Circuit.

Thornell v. Jones (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that the Fifth Circuit erred in granting habeas relief by failing to afford the state court's decision the deference required by AEDPA.

Sonia Sotomayor
Appointed by Democrat · terms 20092023 · 1,088 cases
Liberal
66% liberal34% conservative
78%
in the majority
44%
majority on 5–4 (n=179)
65%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter56% respondent
West Virginia v. B.P.J.60% respondent
Little v. Hecox60% respondent
Recent majority opinions · 102 career
Truck Insurance Exchange v. Kaiser Gypsum Company (2023, 8–0, decided conservative)

The Court held that a debtor's right to appeal a bankruptcy court's order denying confirmation of a reorganization plan is not mooted by the debtor's post-judgment sale of its assets.

National Rifle Association of America v. Vullo (2023, 9–0, decided liberal)

The Court considered whether government officials coerced regulated entities to punish the NRA for its protected speech, but the case was settled and dismissed before a ruling.

Elena Kagan
Appointed by Democrat · terms 20092023 · 996 cases
Liberal
65% liberal35% conservative
82%
in the majority
43%
majority on 5–4 (n=162)
65%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter55% respondent
West Virginia v. B.P.J.58% respondent
Little v. Hecox58% respondent
Recent majority opinions · 96 career
Moody v. Netchoice, Llc (2023, 9–0, decided liberal)

The Court held that the NetChoice plaintiffs lacked standing to challenge the Florida law, vacating the Eleventh Circuit's injunction.

Smith v. Arizona (2023, 9–0, decided liberal)

The Court considered a criminal procedure issue but did not issue a merits decision, dismissing the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted.

Neil M. Gorsuch
Appointed by Republican · terms 20162023 · 500 cases
Moderate
48% liberal52% conservative
82%
in the majority
65%
majority on 5–4 (n=80)
66%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter68% petitioner
West Virginia v. B.P.J.69% petitioner
Little v. Hecox69% petitioner
Recent majority opinions · 49 career
City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Supreme Court heard arguments on whether the Eighth Amendment prevents cities from punishing homeless individuals for sleeping outside when no shelter is available, but has not yet issued a ruling.

Ohio v. Environmental Protection Agency (2023, 5–4, decided conservative)

The Supreme Court considered a challenge to the EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, but ultimately dismissed the case as moot.

Brett M. Kavanaugh
Appointed by Republican · terms 20182023 · 380 cases
Lean conservative
45% liberal55% conservative
94%
in the majority
70%
majority on 5–4 (n=59)
68%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter75% petitioner
West Virginia v. B.P.J.75% petitioner
Little v. Hecox75% petitioner
Recent majority opinions · 37 career
Snyder v. United States (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court considered whether 18 U.S.C. 666(a)(1)(B) requires the government to prove that a bribe of a state or local official was paid with a purpose to influence an organization that receives federal funds, but the Court dismissed the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted.

Moore v. United States (2023, 7–2, decided liberal)

The Court considered whether the Sixteenth Amendment authorizes Congress to tax unrealized sums without apportionment among the states, but did not rule on the question.

Amy Coney Barrett
Appointed by Republican · terms 20202023 · 247 cases
Lean conservative
45% liberal55% conservative
91%
in the majority
47%
majority on 5–4 (n=30)
67%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter73% petitioner
West Virginia v. B.P.J.73% petitioner
Little v. Hecox73% petitioner
Recent majority opinions · 22 career
Corner Post v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that the six-year statute of limitations for challenging agency rules under the Administrative Procedure Act begins when the rule is applied to the plaintiff.

Murthy v. Missouri (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Supreme Court considered whether government officials coerced social-media companies to suppress speech, but the Court ruled that the plaintiffs lacked standing to sue.

Ketanji Brown Jackson
Appointed by Democrat · terms 20222023 · 117 cases
Liberal
68% liberal32% conservative
78%
in the majority
58%
majority on 5–4 (n=12)
61%
model calls votes
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
Trump v. Slaughter57% petitioner
West Virginia v. B.P.J.55% petitioner
Little v. Hecox55% petitioner
Recent majority opinions · 11 career
Texas v. New Mexico and Colorado (2023, 5–4)

The Court addressed a dispute among Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado over water rights to the Pecos River, ruling on the equitable apportionment of the river's waters.

Office of the U.S. Trustee v. John Q. Hammons Fall 2006, Llc (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court held that the increase in U.S. Trustee fees, enacted in 2017, could not be applied to existing Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases filed before the effective date of the fee increase.

Who votes together

Share of shared cases where each pair voted the same way. The two ideological blocs — and the justices who cross between them — show up in the shading.

RoberThomaAlitoSotomKaganGorsuKavanBarreJacks
Roberts
82
87
71
74
78
95
88
75
Thomas
82
87
59
62
82
78
84
58
Alito
87
87
61
64
82
85
83
62
Sotomayor
71
59
61
90
61
67
65
91
Kagan
74
62
64
90
66
72
69
89
Gorsuch
78
82
82
61
66
79
82
66
Kavanaugh
95
78
85
67
72
79
90
76
Barrett
88
84
83
65
69
82
90
71
Jackson
75
58
62
91
89
66
76
71

Where cases come from

Every case arrives from a court below, and the Court mostly takes cases to reverse — this bench sides with the petitioner in 74% of its federal-circuit cases (terms 202024). The odds move with the path: which circuit the case came from, and whether a judge below dissented. Lifetime rates shown for reference.

Unanimous court below
72%
petitioner wins · 166 cases this court · 62% lifetime
Divided court below
87%
petitioner wins · 63 cases — a dissent below adds 16 pts · 72% lifetime
Court belowPetitioner wins, this court (2020–24)CasesLifetime (1946–)
1st Cir.
90%
1057% (190)
2nd Cir.
79%
1955% (653)
3rd Cir.
62%
1358% (419)
4th Cir.too few cases859% (385)
5th Cir.
71%
3166% (712)
6th Cir.
85%
2069% (515)
7th Cir.too few cases762% (476)
8th Cir.
67%
1266% (358)
9th Cir.
77%
5171% (1,118)
10th Cir.too few cases864% (285)
11th Cir.
43%
1461% (238)
D.C. Cir.
100%
1070% (500)
Fed. Cir.too few cases867% (118)
State courts
75%
1666% (2,071)

Who reverses whom

Each sitting justice's petitioner-side rate by court below, over their full tenure (darker = votes to reverse that court more; cells need 15+ shared cases, so newer justices have fewer).

2nd5th6th9thState11th3rd4th8thFed.1st10th7thD.C.
Roberts
68
65
74
79
65
58
64
60
70
73
60
65
60
67
Thomas
64
43
71
80
53
49
54
53
57
59
63
50
55
46
Alito
62
55
69
80
57
50
66
58
55
63
57
58
57
60
Sotomayor
63
74
69
53
72
71
62
46
72
69
48
63
55
52
Kagan
63
78
74
60
73
66
64
50
78
61
56
69
51
46
Gorsuch
67
58
80
79
56
54
70
67
50
60
73
67
81
Kavanaugh
76
70
62
80
70
43
60
63
63
63
Barrett
83
55
80
78
53
Jackson
87
38

Recent calls

The model's walk-forward forecasts for the 116 most recent cases — predicted winner, petitioner-win probability, and the actual result.

CaseP(petitioner)PredictedActual
moody v. netchoice, llc· 2023

The Court held that the NetChoice plaintiffs lacked standing to challenge the Florida law, vacating the Eleventh Circuit's injunction.

65%PetitionerPetitioner
trump v. united states· 2023

The Court decided whether and to what extent a former President enjoys presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office.

55%PetitionerPetitioner
corner post v. board of governors of the federal reserve system· 2023

The Court ruled that the six-year statute of limitations for challenging agency rules under the Administrative Procedure Act begins when the rule is applied to the plaintiff.

70%PetitionerPetitioner
fischer v. united states· 2023

The Court decided a criminal procedure case, but the specifics of the question presented and the Court's ruling are not yet available.

81%PetitionerPetitioner
loper bright enterprises v. raimondo· 2023

The Court considered whether to overrule Chevron deference, but the case was dismissed as improvidently granted, leaving Chevron deference intact.

76%PetitionerPetitioner
city of grants pass, oregon v. johnson· 2023

The Supreme Court heard arguments on whether the Eighth Amendment prevents cities from punishing homeless individuals for sleeping outside when no shelter is available, but has not yet issued a ruling.

81%PetitionerPetitioner
harrington v. purdue pharma l.p.· 2023

The Court considered the legality of Purdue Pharma's bankruptcy plan, which included releases for the Sackler family, and ruled to allow the plan to proceed.

66%PetitionerPetitioner
securities and exchange commission v. jarkesy· 2023

The Court decided whether the SEC administrative law judges' statutory removal protections were constitutional, ruling that they were not.

83%PetitionerRespondent
ohio v. environmental protection agency· 2023

The Supreme Court considered a challenge to the EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, but ultimately dismissed the case as moot.

61%PetitionerPetitioner
moyle v. united states· 2023

The Court considered the scope of privacy rights in digital communications, ruling on the government's access to encrypted data.

72%PetitionerRespondent
snyder v. united states· 2023

The Court considered whether 18 U.S.C. 666(a)(1)(B) requires the government to prove that a bribe of a state or local official was paid with a purpose to influence an organization that receives federal funds, but the Court dismissed the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted.

66%PetitionerPetitioner
murthy v. missouri· 2023

The Supreme Court considered whether government officials coerced social-media companies to suppress speech, but the Court ruled that the plaintiffs lacked standing to sue.

67%PetitionerPetitioner
erlinger v. united states· 2023

The Court considered whether a jury must find facts supporting a U.S. Sentencing Guidelines enhancement, but the case was dismissed before a ruling.

64%PetitionerPetitioner
department of state v. muã±oz· 2023

The Court held that a U.S. citizen does not have a fundamental liberty interest in their noncitizen spouse being admitted to the U.S., reversing the Ninth Circuit.

86%PetitionerPetitioner
united states v. rahimi· 2023

The Court ruled that 18 U.S.C. 922(g)(8), which prohibits firearm possession for individuals subject to domestic violence restraining orders, does not violate the Second Amendment.

71%PetitionerPetitioner
texas v. new mexico and colorado· 2023

The Court addressed a dispute among Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado over water rights to the Pecos River, ruling on the equitable apportionment of the river's waters.

49%RespondentPetitioner
smith v. arizona· 2023

The Court considered a criminal procedure issue but did not issue a merits decision, dismissing the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted.

74%PetitionerPetitioner
chiaverini v. city of napoleon, ohio· 2023

The Court considered whether a plaintiff could challenge a malicious prosecution claim when charges were dropped, but did not issue a ruling on the merits.

68%PetitionerPetitioner
gonzalez v. trevino· 2023

The Court vacated and remanded to determine if the alleged retaliatory arrest of a city councilman for criticizing the mayor violated the First Amendment.

74%PetitionerPetitioner
diaz v. united states· 2023

The Court decided whether Federal Rule of Evidence 702 requires a district court to make an express finding that the expert's testimony was based on sufficient facts or data, and the Court ruled that it does not.

66%PetitionerRespondent
moore v. united states· 2023

The Court considered whether the Sixteenth Amendment authorizes Congress to tax unrealized sums without apportionment among the states, but did not rule on the question.

63%PetitionerRespondent
campos-chaves v. garland· 2023

The Court ruled that a single-document notice to appear for a removal hearing is not required to establish jurisdiction, reversing the Ninth Circuit.

70%PetitionerRespondent
garland v. cargill· 2023

The Court ruled that the ATF exceeded its statutory authority by classifying bump stocks as machineguns.

70%PetitionerRespondent
office of the u.s. trustee v. john q. hammons fall 2006, llc· 2023

The Court held that the increase in U.S. Trustee fees, enacted in 2017, could not be applied to existing Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases filed before the effective date of the fee increase.

61%PetitionerPetitioner
vidal v. elster· 2023

The Court ruled that the First Amendment did not prohibit the government from refusing to register a trademark that uses a person's name without their consent.

53%PetitionerPetitioner
food and drug administration v. alliance for hippocratic medicine· 2023

The Supreme Court ruled that the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine lacked standing to challenge the FDA's regulation of mifepristone, reversing the Fifth Circuit's decision.

62%PetitionerPetitioner
starbucks corp. v. mckinney· 2023

The Court ruled that federal courts must apply the traditional four-factor test for preliminary injunctions when considering National Labor Relations Board requests under NLRA Section 10(j).

62%PetitionerPetitioner
becerra v. san carlos apache tribe· 2023

The Court ruled that the Indian Health Service must pay contract support costs to tribes that administer healthcare programs, even if those costs exceed the IHS's congressional appropriations.

62%PetitionerRespondent
connelly v. united states· 2023

The Court considered whether the proceeds of a life insurance policy funding a stock redemption agreement should be included in the value of the decedent's shares for estate tax purposes, ruling that they should.

61%PetitionerRespondent
truck insurance exchange v. kaiser gypsum company· 2023

The Court held that a debtor's right to appeal a bankruptcy court's order denying confirmation of a reorganization plan is not mooted by the debtor's post-judgment sale of its assets.

63%PetitionerPetitioner
cantero v. bank of america· 2023

The Court considered whether the National Bank Act preempted state law claims regarding mortgage escrow accounts, ruling that federal law did not preempt the state law.

60%PetitionerPetitioner
national rifle association of america v. vullo· 2023

The Court considered whether government officials coerced regulated entities to punish the NRA for its protected speech, but the case was settled and dismissed before a ruling.

67%PetitionerPetitioner
thornell v. jones· 2023

The Court ruled that the Fifth Circuit erred in granting habeas relief by failing to afford the state court's decision the deference required by AEDPA.

83%PetitionerPetitioner
coinbase v. suski· 2023

The Court ruled that the Ninth Circuit did not err in determining that the question of who decides arbitrability depends on the arbitration agreement's specific language.

65%PetitionerRespondent
alexander v. south carolina state conference of the naacp· 2023

The Court held that the South Carolina General Assembly's redistricting plan for congressional districts was not an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

62%PetitionerPetitioner
brown v. united states· 2023

The Court considered whether a federal defendant who pleads guilty preserves an appellate claim that the indictment fails to state an offense if the defendant did not raise the objection before pleading guilty. The Court ruled that such a claim is not preserved.

64%PetitionerRespondent
harrow v. department of defense· 2023

The Court considered whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit's filing deadline for appealing Merit Systems Protection Board decisions is jurisdictional, ruling it is not.

60%PetitionerPetitioner
smith v. spizzirri· 2023

The Court ruled that federal courts must send a case to arbitration even if the court finds the arbitration agreement is unenforceable.

58%PetitionerPetitioner
consumer financial protection bureau v. community financial services association of america, limited· 2023

The Court ruled that the CFPB's funding mechanism, drawing from the Federal Reserve, does not violate the Appropriations Clause.

55%PetitionerPetitioner
culley v. marshall· 2023

The Court ruled that due process does not require a separate preliminary hearing for innocent owner claims in civil forfeiture cases.

66%PetitionerRespondent
warner chappell music v. neal· 2023

The Court considered whether the “discovery rule” applies to copyright claims, but did not rule on the merits, instead vacating and remanding for lack of jurisdiction.

62%PetitionerRespondent
mcintosh v. united states· 2023

The Court held that a federal prisoner seeking to challenge the calculation of their sentence under 28 U.S.C. 2241 must do so within the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996's one-year statute of limitations.

60%PetitionerRespondent
muldrow v. city of st. louis, missouri· 2023

The Supreme Court considered whether the Eighth Circuit's test for showing an adverse employment action in Title VII cases was correct, ruling that a plaintiff need only show some harm from a discriminatory job transfer.

66%PetitionerPetitioner
devillier v. texas· 2023

The Court considered whether property owners can seek just compensation under the Fifth Amendment for property taken without formal condemnation proceedings, but did not issue a ruling on the merits.

68%PetitionerPetitioner
rudisill v. mcdonough· 2023

The Court ruled that a veteran who had received educational assistance under one GI Bill program could also receive assistance under a different GI Bill program, reversing the lower court's decision.

61%PetitionerPetitioner
macquarie infrastructure corp. v. moab partners, l.p.· 2023

The Court held that an omission alone is insufficient to state a claim under Exchange Act Rule 10b-5(b), which requires an untrue statement of material fact.

57%PetitionerPetitioner
sheetz v. county of el dorado, california· 2023

The Court held that a traffic impact fee imposed as a condition for a residential building permit was a "taking" under the Fifth Amendment, even if legislatively imposed.

65%PetitionerPetitioner
bissonnette v. lepage bakeries park st., llc· 2023

The Court considered whether a state law claim for unpaid wages under state law was preempted by the Labor Management Relations Act, but the case was dismissed.

63%PetitionerPetitioner
federal bureau of investigation v. fikre· 2023

The Court considered whether a lawsuit seeking to remove an individual from the No-Fly List became moot once the government removed him, ruling it did.

71%PetitionerRespondent
wilkinson v. garland· 2023

The Court ruled that federal courts can review Board of Immigration Appeals decisions regarding equitable tolling of the 90-day deadline for filing a motion to reopen, reversing the lower court.

69%PetitionerPetitioner
lindke v. freed· 2023

The Court ruled that a public official's social media activity is state action under Section 1983 only if they possess state authority and exercise it to fulfill a governmental responsibility.

69%PetitionerPetitioner
pulsifer v. united states· 2023

The Court held that a defendant's prior uncounseled misdemeanor convictions, if they did not result in imprisonment, cannot be used to enhance a subsequent sentence under the Armed Career Criminal Act.

64%PetitionerRespondent
o'connor-ratcliff v. garnier· 2023

The Court considered whether public officials' social media activity constituted state action, but the case was dismissed as improvidently granted.

65%PetitionerPetitioner
trump v. anderson· 2023

The Court ruled that states cannot disqualify presidential candidates under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment, reversing Colorado's decision to remove Trump from the ballot.

70%PetitionerPetitioner
mcelrath v. georgia· 2023

The Court ruled that the Double Jeopardy Clause prevents a state from retrying a defendant for an offense after an acquittal, even if the acquittal is inconsistent with a conviction on another charge.

72%PetitionerPetitioner
great lakes insurance se v. raiders retreat realty co., llc· 2023

The Court held that federal courts have admiralty jurisdiction over a marine insurance contract dispute, even if the dispute involves a non-maritime issue.

48%RespondentPetitioner
murray v. ubs securities, llc· 2023

The Court considered the evidentiary standard for whistleblower retaliation claims under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, ruling that plaintiffs need not prove their employer acted with retaliatory intent.

70%PetitionerPetitioner
department of agriculture rural development rural housing service v. kirtz· 2023

The Court held that the federal government waived its sovereign immunity under the Privacy Act when a plaintiff seeks actual damages for the government's failure to maintain accurate records.

62%PetitionerRespondent
acheson hotels, llc v. laufer· 2023

The Court dismissed as moot a case about Article III standing for ADA testers, declining to rule on whether such testers have standing to sue for informational injuries.

68%PetitionerPetitioner
biden v. nebraska· 2022

The Court ruled that the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan exceeded its authority under the HEROES Act, thereby striking down the program.

68%PetitionerPetitioner
department of education v. brown· 2022

The Court considered whether the Department of Education had the statutory authority to establish a student loan forgiveness program, ruling that it did not.

55%PetitionerPetitioner
303 creative llc v. elenis· 2022

The Court ruled that a graphic designer has a First Amendment right to refuse to create websites for same-sex weddings, despite a state anti-discrimination law.

83%PetitionerPetitioner
groff v. dejoy· 2022

The Court ruled that to deny a religious accommodation, an employer must show that the burden of granting an accommodation would result in substantial increased costs in relation to the conduct of its particular business.

83%PetitionerPetitioner
students for fair admissions inc. v. president & fellows of harvard college· 2022

The Court ruled that Harvard and UNC's race-conscious admissions programs violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

74%PetitionerPetitioner
abitron austria gmbh v. hetronic int'l· 2022

The Court considered the extraterritorial reach of Section 43(a) of the Lanham Act, ruling that it does not apply to foreign infringements when the infringing conduct occurred abroad.

50%RespondentPetitioner
moore v. harper· 2022

The Court ruled that the North Carolina Supreme Court did not err in striking down the congressional map drawn by the state legislature.

75%PetitionerRespondent
counterman v. colorado· 2022

The Court ruled that to convict a defendant for making true threats, the state must prove the defendant had some subjective understanding of the threatening nature of their statements, overturning the conviction of a man who sent harassing messages.

63%PetitionerPetitioner
mallory v. norfolk southern railway co.· 2022

The Court ruled that the Pennsylvania courts had personal jurisdiction over Norfolk Southern because the company registered to do business there, thereby consenting to jurisdiction.

55%PetitionerPetitioner
united states v. hansen· 2022

The Court unanimously held that the federal ban on encouraging illegal immigration, 8 U.S.C. § 1324(a)(1)(A)(iv), was not unconstitutionally overbroad under the First Amendment.

79%PetitionerPetitioner
coinbase, inc. v. bielski· 2022

The Court ruled that a district court must stay its proceedings when an appeal is taken from the denial of a motion to compel arbitration.

48%RespondentPetitioner
samia v. united states· 2022

The Court ruled that the Confrontation Clause is not violated by the admission of a codefendant's redacted out-of-court statement.

63%PetitionerRespondent
united states v. texas· 2022

The Court decided whether Texas and Louisiana had Article III standing to challenge the Department of Homeland Security's immigration enforcement guidelines, ruling they did not.

55%PetitionerPetitioner
jones v. hendrix· 2022

The Court held that a federal prisoner could not bring a second or successive habeas petition to challenge his sentence based on a new interpretation of a statute.

51%PetitionerRespondent
arizona v. navajo nation· 2022

The Supreme Court ruled that the 1868 Treaty with the Navajo Nation did not require the United States to take affirmative steps to secure water for the Navajo Nation.

70%PetitionerPetitioner
pugin v. garland· 2022

The Court ruled that a defendant's prior conviction for a felony involving the use or carrying of a firearm is not a "violent felony" under the Armed Career Criminal Act.

64%PetitionerRespondent
yegiazaryan v. smagin· 2022

The Court declined to hear a case regarding the enforceability of an oral contract for a share in a business venture, leaving lower court rulings undisturbed.

50%PetitionerRespondent
u.s., ex rel. polansky v. executive health resources· 2022

The Court decided whether the government can dismiss a False Claims Act qui tam action after initially declining to intervene, ruling that it can.

51%PetitionerRespondent
lora v. united states· 2022

The Court held that 18 U.S.C. 924(c)(1)(D)(ii) does not require a consecutive sentence for a defendant who is already subject to a mandatory consecutive sentence.

50%PetitionerPetitioner
lac du flambeau band of lake superior chippewa indians v. coughlin· 2022

The Court considered whether the doctrine of tribal sovereign immunity extends to private commercial activity, but the case was dismissed before a ruling.

60%PetitionerRespondent
haaland v. brackeen· 2022

The Court upheld the Indian Child Welfare Act's provisions concerning the placement of Native American children in adoption and foster care, rejecting challenges to its constitutionality.

79%PetitionerRespondent
smith v. united states· 2022

The Court decided whether the federal 'felon-in-possession' statute requires the government to prove a defendant knew their firearm was a weapon, ruling it does not.

67%PetitionerRespondent
health and hospital corporation of marion county, indiana v. talevski· 2022

The Court ruled that Medicaid Act's anti-discrimination and patient-safety provisions allow private lawsuits to enforce those rights.

74%PetitionerRespondent
jack daniels properties v. vip products llc· 2022

The Court ruled that a parody dog toy was not exempt from trademark infringement claims as an expressive work, reversing the Ninth Circuit.

56%PetitionerPetitioner
allen v. milligan· 2022

The Court affirmed the district court's finding that Alabama's 2021 congressional map likely violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

62%PetitionerRespondent
dubin v. united states· 2022

The Court held that 18 U.S.C. 1035(a)(1) requires that the false statement be material to the charged healthcare fraud, reversing the Fifth Circuit.

62%PetitionerPetitioner
slack technologies v. pirani· 2022

The Court considered whether purchasers of direct and registered shares have standing to sue under Section 11 of the Securities Act of 1933, but did not rule on the merits.

59%PetitionerPetitioner
united states ex rel. schutte v. supervalu inc.· 2022

The Court ruled that a defendant's contemporaneous subjective understanding of the meaning of a phrase was relevant to whether they knowingly made a false claim.

64%PetitionerPetitioner
glacier northwest v. int'l brotherhood of teamsters· 2022

The Court ruled that the National Labor Relations Act did not protect the union from state tort liability for intentionally destroying the employer's property during a strike.

67%PetitionerPetitioner
sackett v. environmental protection agency· 2022

The Court unanimously ruled that the Ninth Circuit erred by using the "significant nexus" test to determine if wetlands are "waters of the United States" under the Clean Water Act.

64%PetitionerPetitioner
dupree v. younger· 2022

The Court held that a party does not forfeit an affirmative defense by failing to reassert it in response to a motion for summary judgment.

61%PetitionerPetitioner
tyler v. hennepin county, minnesota· 2022

The Court unanimously ruled that Hennepin County violated the Fifth Amendment's Takings Clause by retaining the surplus from a tax foreclosure sale.

74%PetitionerPetitioner
calcutt v. fdic· 2022

The Court decided a case about the economic activity, specifically regarding the powers of the FDIC.

62%PetitionerPetitioner
gonzalez v. google llc· 2022

The Court vacated and remanded on the question of whether Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act immunizes interactive computer services when they make targeted recommendations of information provided by another information content provider, finding the issue was not properly before them.

63%PetitionerRespondent
amgen inc. v. sanofi· 2022

The Court considered whether Amgen's antibody patents for lowering cholesterol met the enablement requirement, ruling that they did not enable a person skilled in the art to make and use the full scope of the claims.

62%PetitionerRespondent
andy warhol foundation for the visual arts v. goldsmith· 2022

The Court ruled that Andy Warhol's use of a photograph to create a series of silkscreen prints was not fair use, reversing the Second Circuit's decision.

74%PetitionerRespondent
polselli v. internal revenue service· 2022

The Court decided whether 26 U.S.C. 6320 and 6330 require the IRS to provide a non-custodial spouse with a CDP hearing when the IRS levies property to satisfy the other spouse's tax debt, ruling that it does not.

63%PetitionerRespondent
twitter v. taamneh· 2022

The Court ruled that providing general support to a terrorist organization, without directly aiding a specific act of terrorism, was not sufficient to establish liability under the Anti-Terrorism Act.

63%PetitionerPetitioner
ohio adjutant general’s department v. federal labor relations authority· 2022

The Court considered whether the Federal Labor Relations Authority had jurisdiction over state National Guard civilian technicians, ruling it did not.

64%PetitionerRespondent
percoco v. united states· 2022

The Court considered whether a private citizen can be convicted of honest-services wire fraud for defrauding the public, ruling that they cannot.

56%PetitionerPetitioner
ciminelli v. united states· 2022

The Court considered whether the Second Circuit's 'right to control' theory of fraud could sustain a conviction under federal fraud statutes, ruling that it could not.

56%PetitionerPetitioner
santos-zacaria v. garland· 2022

The Court considered whether the Fifth Circuit erred in reviewing an immigration agency's factual findings, ruling that the court of appeals lacked jurisdiction to review the petitioner's claims.

68%PetitionerPetitioner
national pork producers council v. ross· 2022

The Court affirmed the Ninth Circuit, ruling that the dormant Commerce Clause did not bar California from enforcing Proposition 12, which bans the sale of pork from pigs confined in a cruel manner.

53%PetitionerRespondent
financial oversight and management bd for puerto rico v. centro de periodismo investigativo· 2022

The Court dismissed the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted, leaving undisturbed the First Circuit's judgment regarding the Financial Oversight and Management Board's transparency obligations.

69%PetitionerPetitioner
turkiye halk bankasi a.s. v. united states· 2022

The Court considered whether U.S. courts have jurisdiction over criminal prosecutions of foreign sovereigns, but did not reach a definitive ruling on the merits.

63%PetitionerPetitioner
reed v. goertz· 2022

The Court held that the federal courts should abstain from exercising jurisdiction over a state prisoner's Section 1983 claim challenging the state's post-conviction DNA testing procedures.

51%PetitionerPetitioner
moac mall holdings llc v. transform holdco llc· 2022

The Court ruled that a bankruptcy court's order under 11 U.S.C. 363(m) is not jurisdictional, allowing an appeal to proceed despite the lack of a stay.

64%PetitionerPetitioner
new york v. new jersey· 2022

The Court dismissed New York's complaint against New Jersey regarding the Waterfront Commission Compact as improvidently granted, leaving the compact's future uncertain.

46%RespondentPetitioner
axon enterprise v. federal trade commission· 2022

The Court ruled that district courts have jurisdiction over constitutional challenges to the FTC's structure or existence, not the agency's administrative process.

56%PetitionerPetitioner
wilkins v. united states· 2022

The Court decided whether the Quiet Title Act's 12-year statute of limitations is a jurisdictional rule or a claim-processing rule, ruling it is a claim-processing rule.

50%RespondentPetitioner
perez v. sturgis public schools· 2022

The Court ruled that the exhaustion requirement of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) does not apply to claims seeking only monetary damages.

63%PetitionerPetitioner
bittner v. united states· 2022

The Court ruled that a nonwillful failure to file a Foreign Bank Account Report (FBAR) is subject to a single penalty per form, not per account.

50%RespondentPetitioner
delaware v. pennsylvania and wisconsin· 2022

The Court held that unclaimed funds from MoneyGram's official checks and similar instruments are subject to the 1974 Federal Disposition Act, which assigns them to the state where the instrument was purchased.

46%RespondentRespondent
cruz v. arizona· 2022

The Court considered whether Arizona courts must apply federal law to review a capital defendant's claim of intellectual disability, but the case was dismissed.

56%PetitionerPetitioner
helix energy solutions group v. hewitt· 2022

The Supreme Court held that the Fair Labor Standards Act's exemption for highly compensated employees does not apply to employees paid on a daily basis, regardless of their total annual compensation.

80%PetitionerRespondent
bartenwerfer v. buckley· 2022

The Court held that a debt for money or property obtained by fraud is nondischargeable in bankruptcy, even if the debtor did not personally commit the fraud.

67%PetitionerRespondent
arellano v. mcdonough· 2022

The Court decided a case about the legal subject of civil rights.

75%PetitionerRespondent

Recent decisions (16)

The Court addressed whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims against pesticide manufacturers. The Court held that FIFRA expressly preempts such claims if they would require a manufacturer to add a warning to a label that EPA has not required, as federal law mandates the use of EPA-approved labels.

FederalismNo. 24-1068

The Supreme Court addressed when an alien "arrives in the United States" for asylum and inspection purposes under the INA. The Court held that an alien arrives only when they cross the border, not when they are standing in Mexico attempting to enter, thus not entitling them to asylum application or inspection while still in Mexico.

ImmigrationNo. 25-5
Mullin v. Doe2026-06-25

The Supreme Court addressed whether individuals challenging the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Syria and Haiti are entitled to orders postponing these terminations during litigation. The Court held that the TPS statute bars judicial review of non-constitutional claims and that the equal protection claim regarding Haiti's TPS termination was unlikely to succeed.

ImmigrationNo. 25-1083

The Court addressed whether a Hawaii law prohibiting firearms on private property open to the public without express consent violates the Second and Fourteenth Amendments. The Court held that the law is unconstitutional because it imposes a significant burden on the right to carry handguns for self-defense, and Hawaii's historical analogues did not support its constitutionality.

Second AmendmentNo. 24-1046

The case questions whether individuals can be held personally liable under the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act (RLUIPA), a Spending Clause statute, without their voluntary and knowing consent to such liability. The Court held that individuals cannot be held liable in their personal capacities under a Spending Clause statute unless they have voluntarily and knowingly consented to answer lawsuits under that statute, and since the individual officers did not consent, the case against them cannot proceed.

First AmendmentNo. 23-1197
Blanche v. Lau2026-06-23

The Court addressed whether the Immigration and Nationality Act requires a border officer to have clear and convincing evidence that a lawful permanent resident committed a crime involving moral turpitude before deeming them an applicant for admission. The Court held that the INA does not impose such a burden on border officers, clarifying that the commission of the crime is sufficient at the initial stage, with conviction or admission required later to establish inadmissibility.

ImmigrationNo. 25-429

The Court addressed whether new causes of action for violations of international norms can be created under the Alien Tort Statute (ATS) and whether aiding and abetting liability applies under the Torture Victim Protection Act (TVPA). The Court held that courts may not create new causes of action under the ATS, emphasizing that the power to create causes of action belongs to Congress and that judicially created causes of action generally offend the separation of powers.

Judicial PowerNo. 24-856

The Court addressed whether the Helms-Burton Act itself abrogates the sovereign immunity of Cuban agencies and instrumentalities, or if plaintiffs must also satisfy an exception under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA). The Court held that the Helms-Burton Act clearly abrogates the sovereign immunity of Cuban agencies and instrumentalities, meaning plaintiffs do not need to satisfy an additional FSIA exception.

Judicial PowerNo. 24-699

The Court addressed whether "just compensation" for a tax sale under the Fifth Amendment's Takings Clause is based on the auction sale price or the property's fair market value, holding that the proper baseline is the auction sale price when the sale is fairly conducted. Additionally, the Court rejected the argument that the Eighth Amendment's Excessive Fines Clause requires compensation beyond the surplus proceeds from a fairly conducted tax sale.

Due ProcessNo. 25-95

The Supreme Court summarily reversed the Second Circuit's grant of habeas relief, holding that the Second Circuit exceeded its authority under AEDPA by finding a state-court decision unreasonable for not instructing a jury on how to apply Missouri v. Seibert, a case that did not address jury instructions.

Criminal ProcedureNo. 25-748

The case addresses whether the Rooker-Feldman doctrine, which bars federal district courts from reviewing state-court judgments, applies only to final judgments from a state's highest court or also to judgments still subject to state appellate review. The Court held that the doctrine applies regardless of whether the state-court judgment remains subject to further review in state appellate proceedings.

Judicial PowerNo. 25-197

The Court addressed whether an appeal waiver in a plea agreement is enforceable when the defendant challenges a mandatory-medication condition as infringing on a fundamental due process liberty interest. The Court held that an agreement not to appeal a sentence is unenforceable when it would result in a miscarriage of justice, meaning an egregious error that would bring the judicial system into disrepute.

Criminal ProcedureNo. 24-1063

The question presented is whether prosecuting an individual for possessing a gun while being an unlawful user of a controlled substance, under 18 U. S. C. §922(g)(3), violates the Second Amendment. The Court held that the government's prosecution of Mr. Hemani under this provision is inconsistent with the Second Amendment because the government's historical analogy to "habitual drunkard" laws fails to demonstrate a relevant similarity in purpose and operation.

Second AmendmentNo. 24-1234

The Supreme Court addressed whether a defendant charged with falsifying a document to obstruct a federal investigation must be tried where the falsification occurred or where the investigation was located. The Court held that venue is proper only in the district where the falsification took place, as no "conduct constituting the offense" happened in the district where the investigation was located.

Criminal ProcedureNo. 25-5146

The case questioned whether Section 47(b) of the Investment Company Act (ICA) implicitly allows private parties to sue for rescission of contracts that allegedly violate the Act. The Court held that Section 47(b) does not create an implied private right of action for such lawsuits, emphasizing that Congress, not the Judiciary, determines who may enforce federal law.

Economic ActivityNo. 24-345

The Court addressed whether a debtor's failure to disclose a claim in bankruptcy proceedings was inadvertent or mistaken for purposes of judicial estoppel. The Court held that courts should consider the totality of the circumstances, rather than narrowly focusing on the debtor's knowledge of facts or potential motive to conceal, when determining if an omission was inadvertent or mistaken.

Judicial PowerNo. 25-6

Decisions from CourtListener (Free Law Project) — click a case for the full opinion. Issue area and summary are generated by an LLM (Gemini) from each opinion's official syllabus, so they reflect the actual ruling rather than a guess.

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