VotePredictor

The Supreme Court

The current court: who sits on it, how they vote, where their cases come from, and what our model, VotePredictor SCOTUS, expects case by case. VotePredictor SCOTUS predicts each justice's vote from what's known before a decision (accuracy 67.3% vs a 60.6% baseline, walk-forward 1970–2025) — the full backtest, the academic benchmark, and the model zoo live on the record page.

Upcoming cases

Every case the Court has agreed to hear and not yet decided, with VotePredictor SCOTUS' call on each and the predicted vote of each justice. The scoreboard for the last completed term, and how each forecaster did on it, follows below.

October Term 2026: 29 cases on the docket

In argument order; 4 argued so far, 0 with the transcript posted. Once a case is argued its card names the side the model expects to win and the chance. Before that it shows the structural read: how each justice leans on what the docket says (amicus briefs by side, the Solicitor General's position), who the parties are, the issue and the lower court. That read separates the nine but not the cases, so no case-level odds are shown until the transcript posts. Click a case for the question presented, the facts, and what sits behind each number. The row of nine is the predicted vote of each justice: violet sides with the petitioner, amber with the respondent; the deeper the color, the surer the model, and the number is that justice's chance of voting that way.

Judicial Power · No. 25-735 · argued Oct 5 · transcript pending
Before argument: 6–3 for Johnsonthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
58%
Alito
63%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
69%
Economic Activity · No. 25-170 · argued Oct 5 · transcript pending
Before argument: 5–3 for Suncor Energy Inc.the structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts. A bench of 8: Alito recused.
Alito
recused
Roberts
76%
Thomas
76%
Sotomayor
54%
Kagan
54%
Gorsuch
76%
Kavanaugh
76%
Barrett
76%
Jackson
54%
Economic Activity · No. 25-498 · argued Oct 6 · transcript pending
Before argument: 5–4 for Andersonthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
54%
Thomas
54%
Alito
54%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
54%
Kavanaugh
54%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
69%
Judicial Power · No. 25-579 · argued Oct 7 · transcript pending
Before argument: 5–4 for Department of the Air Forcethe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
63%
Thomas
69%
Alito
69%
Sotomayor
54%
Kagan
54%
Gorsuch
63%
Kavanaugh
63%
Barrett
59%
Jackson
54%
Criminal Procedure · No. 25-5343 · argument Oct 13
Before argument: 6–3 for Beairdthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
58%
Thomas
53%
Alito
53%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
58%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
69%
Privacy · No. 25-459 · argument Oct 14
Before argument: 5–4 for Salazarthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
54%
Thomas
54%
Alito
54%
Sotomayor
63%
Kagan
63%
Gorsuch
54%
Kavanaugh
54%
Barrett
58%
Jackson
69%
Maxwell v. Dinisdetails →
Judicial Power · No. 25-5930 · argument Nov 2
Before argument: 5–4 for Maxwellthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
54%
Thomas
53%
Alito
56%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
63%
Gorsuch
54%
Kavanaugh
58%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
69%
Judicial Power · No. 25-352 · argument Nov 2
Before argument: 5–4 for Youngethe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
54%
Alito
58%
Sotomayor
59%
Kagan
58%
Gorsuch
58%
Kavanaugh
66%
Barrett
59%
Jackson
58%
First Amendment · No. 25-581 · argument Nov 3
Before argument: 7–2 for St. Mary Catholic Parishthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
76%
Thomas
76%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
66%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
76%
Kavanaugh
76%
Barrett
76%
Jackson
69%
Judicial Power · No. 25-1003 · argument Nov 4
Before argument: 7–2 for Guerrerothe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
76%
Thomas
76%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
76%
Barrett
76%
Jackson
66%
Economic Activity · No. 25-159 · argument Nov 9
Before argument: 5–4 for Hoffmannthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
53%
Thomas
53%
Alito
54%
Sotomayor
54%
Kagan
54%
Gorsuch
54%
Kavanaugh
53%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
66%
Judicial Power · No. 25-417 · argument Nov 9
Before argument: 6–3 for Nielsenthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
69%
Alito
69%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
58%
Judicial Power · No. 25-966 · argument Nov 10
Before argument: 6–3 for Department of Laborthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
66%
Thomas
54%
Alito
54%
Sotomayor
63%
Kagan
66%
Gorsuch
58%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
58%
Jackson
63%
Judicial Power · No. 25-183 · argument Nov 30
Before argument: 5–4 for Crowtherthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
56%
Thomas
56%
Alito
54%
Sotomayor
54%
Kagan
54%
Gorsuch
54%
Kavanaugh
58%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
54%
Civil Rights · No. 25-842 · argument Nov 30
Before argument: 5–4 for Wassilythe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
54%
Thomas
56%
Alito
56%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
58%
Kavanaugh
54%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
69%
Jouppi v. Alaskadetails →
Criminal Procedure · No. 25-246 · argument Dec 1
Before argument: 6–3 for Jouppithe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
58%
Thomas
53%
Alito
52%
Sotomayor
76%
Kagan
76%
Gorsuch
58%
Kavanaugh
63%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
69%
Civil Rights · No. 25-238 · argument Dec 2
Before argument: 6–3 for Viramontesthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
69%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
54%
Kagan
54%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
58%
Judicial Power · No. 25-840 · argument Dec 7
Before argument: 7–2 for International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc.the structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
76%
Thomas
71%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
76%
Kagan
76%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
76%
Barrett
76%
Jackson
76%
Civil Rights · No. 25-1017 · argument Dec 8
Before argument: 6–3 for Republican National Committeethe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
76%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
53%
Kagan
54%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
76%
Jackson
54%
First Amendment · No. 25-965 · argument Dec 9
Before argument: 7–2 for Grandthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
76%
Thomas
69%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
76%
Gorsuch
76%
Kavanaugh
76%
Barrett
76%
Jackson
76%
Judicial Power · No. 25-1311 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 6–3 for Apple Inc.the structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
69%
Alito
69%
Sotomayor
63%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
58%
Judicial Power · No. 26-426 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 6–3 for Department of Homeland Securitythe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
71%
Thomas
76%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
54%
Kagan
58%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
76%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
58%
Genalo v. Blackdetails →
Due Process · No. 25-886 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 6–3 for Genalothe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
76%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
52%
Kagan
54%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
54%
Kian v. Floridadetails →
Criminal Procedure · No. 25-6623 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 5–4 for Kianthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
56%
Thomas
56%
Alito
56%
Sotomayor
76%
Kagan
76%
Gorsuch
54%
Kavanaugh
52%
Barrett
56%
Jackson
76%
Federalism · No. 25-1349 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 6–3 for Marschnerthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
63%
Alito
63%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
69%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
69%
First Amendment · No. 25-1131 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 7–2 for Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc.the structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
76%
Thomas
76%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
76%
Kagan
76%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
76%
Barrett
76%
Jackson
76%
Judicial Power · No. 25-1223 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 5–4 for Montoya Palaciosthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
54%
Thomas
54%
Alito
52%
Sotomayor
69%
Kagan
63%
Gorsuch
59%
Kavanaugh
54%
Barrett
54%
Jackson
69%
Civil Rights · No. 26-104 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 6–3 for Rhoneythe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
76%
Alito
76%
Sotomayor
54%
Kagan
58%
Gorsuch
69%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
58%
Economic Activity · No. 24-1016 · argument not yet scheduled
Before argument: 6–3 for RiseandShine Corporationthe structural read, from the docket (amici by side, the Solicitor General), the parties, the issue and the lower court; no case-level odds until the transcript posts.
Roberts
69%
Thomas
69%
Alito
69%
Sotomayor
76%
Kagan
76%
Gorsuch
71%
Kavanaugh
69%
Barrett
69%
Jackson
76%

The call is VotePredictor SCOTUS' probability that the named side wins; "toss-up", "lean", "likely" and "strong" are the model's confidence tiers, scored in the table below. The range is a 90% band from refitting the model on resampled cases. Before oral argument the model reads the case's structure and its docket; that arm's per-justice numbers are shown, but its case-level calibration (chosen by the same preregistered rule as the served arm's) caps how sure nine correlated votes may make a case, so its case-level number barely varies and is withheld until the transcript posts. The expected vote and the chance of a unanimous ruling come from the joint model of all nine votes. Where the FantasySCOTUS crowd or a prediction market has a number it is shown beside the model's; the crowd publishes a percentage only after a case is decided, so most pending cases carry the model alone.

VotePredictor SCOTUS — the record, and this term

VotePredictor SCOTUS' overall accuracy from the walk-forward backtest (1970–2025), then this term's scoreboard: every forecaster — VotePredictor SCOTUS, the FantasySCOTUS crowd, the prediction markets — scored the same way on this term's decided cases, and everyone's calls on the cases still pending.

One honest note: this term's cases haven't been coded by the case database yet, so they're predicted from the smaller set of features known before coding — a bit weaker than the full historical backtest above, which gets the richer coding after the fact.

67.3%
justice votes called right (baseline 60.6%)
65.1%
case outcomes called right (baseline 64.6%)
54,465
justice votes backtested
56
terms, strictly walk-forward
This term, 27 decided cases: forecastercases scoredBrier (lower = better)accuracy (base rate 85.2%)
FantasySCOTUS crowd270.12296.3%
Consensus (model + crowd + available markets) †270.12688.9%
VotePredictor SCOTUS (after oral argument) ★270.14985.2%
Prediction marketstoo few cases to rank10.011100.0%
"Petitioner always wins" base rate27—85.2%

27 cases decided in October Term 2025, the term this table scores; the 29 cases below are October Term 2026's docket, none decided yet. Every forecaster is scored on the decided cases it called, forecast after oral argument, with the same metric — the markets only price the high-profile cases, so their sample is smaller. Ranked by Brier because on a term this lopsided accuracy cannot separate them: a forecaster that leans petitioner on every case matches the base rate exactly. This table is one term; the headline figures above are the walk-forward record over every case since 1970. † Consensus blends VotePredictor SCOTUS, the crowd, and the markets, so it can't be ranked against them as an independent. Full model zoo and the {Marshall}+ academic benchmark: the record page.

How sure is VotePredictor SCOTUS, and how sure should you be?

Every live probability falls in one of four tiers by its distance from 50%. Each tier is scored on the served model's own walk-forward record, 2013–2023: what it said on average, and how often it was right. Where "calls right" sits below "model said", the model is over-confident in that tier. The range beside each calls-right figure is a 90% band from resampling the record's terms.

case outcomescallsmodel saidcalls rightBrier
toss-up 50–60%102(16%)56%50%(45%–55%)0.256
lean 60–70%187(29%)66%71%(64%–80%)0.206
likely 70–80%352(55%)73%72%(68%–77%)0.203
strong 80%+0———
justice votescallsmodel saidcalls rightBrier
toss-up 50–60%1702(30%)55%56%(52%–59%)0.245
lean 60–70%1687(30%)64%67%(63%–71%)0.220
likely 70–80%1591(28%)74%76%(73%–80%)0.181
strong 80%+646(12%)88%77%(71%–91%)0.200

Pending now: RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc. likely, Guerrero v. Johnson likely, Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota likely, Montoya Palacios v. Liggins lean, Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc. likely, Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc. lean, Suncor Energy Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County likely, Crowther v. Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia lean, Viramontes v. Cook County likely, Jouppi v. Alaska likely, Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney's Office, Georgia likely, Nielsen v. Watanabe likely, Salazar v. Paramount Global lean, Anderson v. Intel Corporation Investment Policy Committee lean, Beaird v. United States likely, Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan likely, St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy likely, Maxwell v. Dinis lean, Kian v. Florida lean, Johnson v. United States Congress likely, International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson likely, Wassily v. Blanche lean, Genalo v. Black likely, Grand v. City of University Heights likely, Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC likely, Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. likely, Missionaries of Saint John the Baptist, Inc. v. Frederic likely, Marschner v. Marschner likely, Rhoney v. Barbosa da Cunha likely. Over the whole record the model called 68% of 641 case outcomes and 67% of 5626 justice votes.

The rest of the term, simulated (20,000 runs)

All 29 pending cases at once. Each run draws one term-level mood, one factor per case and one noise per justice through the joint model, so the cases can move together. Bold is with the term factor; in parentheses, the same runs with the cases independent, so you can see what the factor adds.

of the 29 pending01234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829
petitioner wins0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)1%(0%)1%(0%)2%(1%)4%(2%)5%(4%)7%(7%)9%(10%)10%(14%)12%(15%)11%(15%)11%(13%)9%(9%)7%(5%)5%(3%)3%(1%)1%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)
unanimous decisions0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)1%(1%)2%(2%)4%(3%)7%(6%)9%(9%)12%(12%)14%(14%)13%(15%)12%(13%)9%(10%)7%(7%)4%(4%)3%(2%)1%(1%)1%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)
one-vote margins3%(3%)10%(10%)19%(19%)23%(23%)20%(20%)13%(13%)7%(7%)3%(3%)1%(1%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)0%(0%)

Expected petitioner wins 19.20 of 29 (spread 3.35; 2.51 if independent). All 29 for the petitioner 0%, none 0%, at least one one-vote margin 97%. End of term: 23 of 27 decided cases reversed so far, expected 42.2 of 56 in all. Term factor 0.05 (on the case-factor scale, through the 0.75 correlation across nine justices): on the 11-term record the term's reversal count runs 1.37σ from its independent expectation on average, against about 0.8σ if terms were independent, with 3 terms past 2σ; the factor is fit by maximum likelihood on every vote vector and predicts the term count at least as well walk-forward. Per-case probabilities from VotePredictor SCOTUS are unchanged by this; only how the cases co-vary is.

Every call this term, justice by justice — right and wrong →Frozen prediction trajectories for every decided case →

Prediction markets on cases

What the Polymarket and Kalshi market models are pricing on specific Supreme Court cases, shown for comparison — not an input to VotePredictor SCOTUS. Coverage is sparse (a few high-profile cases) and grows as more cases list.

KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc in Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. Commissioners of Boulder County66% yes$3,632KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Homeland Security in Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D.70% yes$1,830KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Hamed Kian in Kian v. Florida80% yes$1,475KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kendrick Jarrell Beaird in Beaird v. United States71% yes$1,319KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Dr. Jasmine Younge in Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office56% yes$1,073KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Winston R. Anderson and Christopher M. Sulyma in Anderson v. Intel Corp. Investment Policy Committee13% yes$973KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of RiseandShine Corporation, d/b/a Rise Brewing in RiseandShine Corp. v. PepsiCo, Inc.73% yes$834KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Daniel Grand in Grand v. City of University Heights89% yes$831KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of William Maxwell in Maxwell v. Thomas63% yes$805KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of St. Mary Catholic Parish in Littleton in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy78% yes$633KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Leonard W. Hoffmann et al. in Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.51% yes$459KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Francis Nielsen in Nielsen v. Watanabe75% yes$432KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Department of Labor in Department of Labor v. Sun Valley Orchards, LLC20% yes$395KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Floyd D. Johnson in Johnson v. United States Congress66% yes$373KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Tamer S. Wassily in Wassily v. Blanche31% yes$223KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Kevin Isaac Montoya Palacios in Montoya Palacios v. Liggins62% yes$200KalshiWill the Supreme Court rule in favor of Thomas Crowther et al. in Crowther v. Board of Regents of the University System of Georgia34% yes$164

The bench — ideology

Sotomayor-2.8Jackson-2.0Kagan-1.4Roberts+0.6Kavanaugh+0.8Barrett+1.0Gorsuch+1.9Alito+2.4Thomas+3.6← liberalconservative →

Position is each justice's Martin–Quinn score (higher = more conservative). The Martin–Quinn data feed is currently offline, so these are the last published values and are approximate; the live feed will replace them when it returns.

The sitting nine

Each justice profiled from their entire voting record: ideology (share of conservative vs liberal votes), how often they land in the majority, their record on one-vote-margin (5–4) decisions — the swing-vote tell — and how predictable VotePredictor SCOTUS finds them. Each card adds VotePredictor SCOTUS' predicted votes on the pending cases and the justice's most recent majority opinions.

John G. RobertsCHIEF
Appointed by Republican · terms 2005–2023 · 1,407 cases
Lean conservative
44% liberal56% conservative
90%
in the majority
65%
majority on 5–4 (n=250)
69%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.69% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson76% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota69% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins54% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.69% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.53% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 138 career
Trump v. United States (2023, 6–3, decided liberal)

The Court decided whether and to what extent a former President enjoys presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office.

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo (2023, 6–2, decided conservative)

The Court considered whether to overrule Chevron deference, but the case was dismissed as improvidently granted, leaving Chevron deference intact.

Clarence Thomas
Appointed by Republican · terms 1991–2023 · 2,714 cases
Conservative
35% liberal65% conservative
80%
in the majority
62%
majority on 5–4 (n=487)
65%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.69% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson76% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota76% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins54% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.69% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.53% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 252 career
Diaz v. United States (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court decided whether Federal Rule of Evidence 702 requires a district court to make an express finding that the expert's testimony was based on sufficient facts or data, and the Court ruled that it does not.

Garland v. Cargill (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that the ATF exceeded its statutory authority by classifying bump stocks as machineguns.

Samuel A. Alito
Appointed by Republican · terms 2005–2023 · 1,381 cases
Lean conservative
38% liberal62% conservative
82%
in the majority
59%
majority on 5–4 (n=248)
68%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.69% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson76% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota76% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins52% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.69% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.54% petitioner
+22 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 127 career
Campos-Chaves v. Garland (2023, 5–4, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that a single-document notice to appear for a removal hearing is not required to establish jurisdiction, reversing the Ninth Circuit.

Thornell v. Jones (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that the Fifth Circuit erred in granting habeas relief by failing to afford the state court's decision the deference required by AEDPA.

Sonia Sotomayor
Appointed by Democrat · terms 2009–2023 · 1,088 cases
Liberal
66% liberal34% conservative
78%
in the majority
44%
majority on 5–4 (n=179)
65%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.76% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson69% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota53% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins69% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.63% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.54% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 102 career
Truck Insurance Exchange v. Kaiser Gypsum Company (2023, 8–0, decided conservative)

The Court held that a debtor's right to appeal a bankruptcy court's order denying confirmation of a reorganization plan is not mooted by the debtor's post-judgment sale of its assets.

National Rifle Association of America v. Vullo (2023, 9–0, decided liberal)

The Court considered whether government officials coerced regulated entities to punish the NRA for its protected speech, but the case was settled and dismissed before a ruling.

Elena Kagan
Appointed by Democrat · terms 2009–2023 · 996 cases
Liberal
65% liberal35% conservative
82%
in the majority
43%
majority on 5–4 (n=162)
66%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.76% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson69% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota54% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins63% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.69% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.54% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 96 career
Moody v. Netchoice, Llc (2023, 9–0, decided liberal)

The Court held that the NetChoice plaintiffs lacked standing to challenge the Florida law, vacating the Eleventh Circuit's injunction.

Smith v. Arizona (2023, 9–0, decided liberal)

The Court considered a criminal procedure issue but did not issue a merits decision, dismissing the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted.

Neil M. Gorsuch
Appointed by Republican · terms 2016–2023 · 500 cases
Moderate
48% liberal52% conservative
82%
in the majority
65%
majority on 5–4 (n=80)
66%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.71% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson69% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota69% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins59% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.69% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.54% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 49 career
City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Supreme Court heard arguments on whether the Eighth Amendment prevents cities from punishing homeless individuals for sleeping outside when no shelter is available, but has not yet issued a ruling.

Ohio v. Environmental Protection Agency (2023, 5–4, decided conservative)

The Supreme Court considered a challenge to the EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, but ultimately dismissed the case as moot.

Brett M. Kavanaugh
Appointed by Republican · terms 2018–2023 · 380 cases
Lean conservative
45% liberal55% conservative
94%
in the majority
70%
majority on 5–4 (n=59)
70%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.69% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson76% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota69% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins54% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.69% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.53% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 37 career
Snyder v. United States (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court considered whether 18 U.S.C. 666(a)(1)(B) requires the government to prove that a bribe of a state or local official was paid with a purpose to influence an organization that receives federal funds, but the Court dismissed the writ of certiorari as improvidently granted.

Moore v. United States (2023, 7–2, decided liberal)

The Court considered whether the Sixteenth Amendment authorizes Congress to tax unrealized sums without apportionment among the states, but did not rule on the question.

Amy Coney Barrett
Appointed by Republican · terms 2020–2023 · 247 cases
Lean conservative
45% liberal55% conservative
91%
in the majority
47%
majority on 5–4 (n=30)
67%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.69% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson76% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota76% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins54% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.69% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.54% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 22 career
Corner Post v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court ruled that the six-year statute of limitations for challenging agency rules under the Administrative Procedure Act begins when the rule is applied to the plaintiff.

Murthy v. Missouri (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Supreme Court considered whether government officials coerced social-media companies to suppress speech, but the Court ruled that the plaintiffs lacked standing to sue.

Ketanji Brown Jackson
Appointed by Democrat · terms 2022–2023 · 117 cases
Liberal
68% liberal32% conservative
78%
in the majority
58%
majority on 5–4 (n=12)
59%
VotePredictor SCOTUS accuracy
Conservative-vote share, by term
Predicted votes — pending cases
RiseandShine Corporation v. PepsiCo, Inc.76% petitioner
Guerrero v. Johnson66% petitioner
Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota54% petitioner
Montoya Palacios v. Liggins69% petitioner
Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc.58% petitioner
Hoffmann v. WBI Energy Transmission, Inc.66% petitioner
+23 more on the docket, every one on the calls page
Recent majority opinions · 11 career
Texas v. New Mexico and Colorado (2023, 5–4)

The Court addressed a dispute among Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado over water rights to the Pecos River, ruling on the equitable apportionment of the river's waters.

Office of the U.S. Trustee v. John Q. Hammons Fall 2006, Llc (2023, 6–3, decided conservative)

The Court held that the increase in U.S. Trustee fees, enacted in 2017, could not be applied to existing Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases filed before the effective date of the fee increase.

Who votes together

Share of shared cases where each pair voted the same way. The two ideological blocs — and the justices who cross between them — show up in the shading.

RoberThomaAlitoSotomKaganGorsuKavanBarreJacks
Roberts
—
82
87
71
74
78
95
88
75
Thomas
82
—
87
59
62
82
78
84
58
Alito
87
87
—
61
64
82
85
83
62
Sotomayor
71
59
61
—
90
61
67
65
91
Kagan
74
62
64
90
—
66
72
69
89
Gorsuch
78
82
82
61
66
—
79
82
66
Kavanaugh
95
78
85
67
72
79
—
90
76
Barrett
88
84
83
65
69
82
90
—
71
Jackson
75
58
62
91
89
66
76
71
—

Where cases come from

Every case arrives from a court below, and the Court mostly takes cases to reverse — this bench sides with the petitioner in 74% of its federal-circuit cases (terms 2020–24). The odds move with the path: which circuit the case came from, and whether a judge below dissented. Lifetime rates shown for reference.

Unanimous court below
72%
petitioner wins · 166 cases this court · 62% lifetime
Divided court below
87%
petitioner wins · 63 cases — a dissent below adds 16 pts · 72% lifetime
Court belowPetitioner wins, this court (2020–24)CasesLifetime (1946–)
1st Cir.
90%
1057% (190)
2nd Cir.
79%
1955% (653)
3rd Cir.
62%
1358% (419)
4th Cir.too few cases859% (385)
5th Cir.
71%
3166% (712)
6th Cir.
85%
2069% (515)
7th Cir.too few cases762% (476)
8th Cir.
67%
1266% (358)
9th Cir.
77%
5171% (1,118)
10th Cir.too few cases864% (285)
11th Cir.
43%
1461% (238)
D.C. Cir.
100%
1070% (500)
Fed. Cir.too few cases867% (118)
State courts
75%
1666% (2,071)

Who reverses whom

Each sitting justice's petitioner-side rate by court below, over their full tenure (darker = votes to reverse that court more; cells need 15+ shared cases, so newer justices have fewer).

2nd5th6th9thState11th3rd4th8thFed.1st10th7thD.C.
Roberts
68
65
74
79
65
58
64
60
70
73
60
65
60
67
Thomas
64
43
71
80
53
49
54
53
57
59
63
50
55
46
Alito
62
55
69
80
57
50
66
58
55
63
57
58
57
60
Sotomayor
63
74
69
53
72
71
62
46
72
69
48
63
55
52
Kagan
63
78
74
60
73
66
64
50
78
61
56
69
51
46
Gorsuch
67
58
80
79
56
54
70
67
50
60
73
67
81
Kavanaugh
76
70
62
80
70
43
60
63
63
63
Barrett
83
55
80
78
53
Jackson
87
38

Who gets overturned

Every Supreme Court merits decision since 1946, matched to the judges who decided it below. Read these against the baseline, not against zero. The Court hears cases it is inclined to reverse: across 8,843 merits decisions it overturned the court below 66% of the time. A judge at that number is unremarkable. This is not a record of how often a judge is right — it covers only the rulings the Court chose to review.

Circuit judges by how often the Supreme Court overturned them
JudgeCourtReviewedOverturnedvs baseline
Stephen Roy ReinhardtCA9(1982–2021)9686 (90%)+25
David L. BazelonCADC(1950–1983)8459 (70%)+5
Charles Edward ClarkCA2(1946–1964)8338 (46%)−19
Joseph Edward LumbardCA2(1955–1994)8044 (55%)−10
Elijah Barrett PrettymanCADC(1946–1964)7954 (68%)+4
Henry White EdgertonCADC(1946–1967)7054 (77%)+12
Richard Taylor RivesCA5(1952–1977)6948 (70%)+5
Wilbur Kingsbury MillerCADC(1946–1974)6950 (73%)+8
Francis Ryan DuffyCA7(1949–1973)6852 (77%)+12
Joseph Chappell HutchesonCA5(1946–1967)6843 (63%)−2
John Robert BrownCA5(1956–1986)6648 (73%)+8
Diarmuid Fionntain O'ScannlainCA9(1987–2018)5846 (79%)+14

District courts, and whether the ruling held

A case runs district → circuit → Supreme Court, so what the Supreme Court did is not what happened to the trial judge. If the circuit reversed them and the Supreme Court then reversed the circuit, the district ruling was restored — the judge was right and the court in the middle was wrong. Counting that as the district being overturned gets it backwards, so the two steps are shown separately. Court names come from the Supreme Court Database codebook.

District courtCasesCircuit reversed it…then restoredRuling held
New York Southern U.S. District Court37114910659%
District of Columbia U.S. District Court3131309653%
Illinois Northern U.S. District Court2531137148%
California Central U.S. District Court2171109457%
California Northern U.S. District Court203815343%
Pennsylvania Eastern U.S. District Court136573452%
California Southern U.S. District Court123503753%
Virginia Eastern U.S. District Court103472847%

These are circuitjudges — the panel whose decision the Supreme Court reviewed. District judges are not named: the Supreme Court Database records the originating court but no judge, and CourtListener's circuit dockets leave the field empty. Identifying them needs district dockets this project does not ingest. 586 judges with at least three reviewed rulings. 1688panel entries could not be resolved to one judge and are left out rather than pooled into somebody else's record. Some of that is irreducible: CourtListener stores a bare surname, and these pairs sat on the same court at the same time — Augustus Noble Hand and Learned Hand (CA2); Charles Clark and Thomas Alonzo Clark (CA5); Frank Minis Johnson and Samuel D. Johnson (CA5); Floyd Robert Gibson and John R. Gibson (CA8). Naming which ruling was whose would be a guess about a real judge. Sources: Supreme Court Database, CourtListener, and the Federal Judicial Center biographical directory.

Recent decisions (19)

The Court addressed whether the U.S. Constitution requires Missouri to use a new redistricting map that has not been approved by voters as required by state law. The Court held that lower federal courts should not alter state election rules on the eve of or during an election, thereby staying injunctions that would have mandated the use of the unapproved 2025 map.

FederalismNo. 26A388

The Court granted a stay, finding that while the plaintiff organizations likely had standing to challenge the modified SAVE program, their claims that the program violated the Social Security Act, Privacy Act, and Administrative Procedure Act likely lacked merit because Congress had expressly authorized DHS to request and receive citizenship information.

PrivacyNo. 26A308

The case concerns whether the Fourth Circuit had statutory jurisdiction to review an FCC public notice while an application for review was still pending before the Commission. The Court held that the Fourth Circuit likely lacked jurisdiction, granting a stay because the Communications Act requires the Commission to resolve an application for review by order before judicial review can be sought.

Judicial PowerNo. 26A274

The Court granted a stay of a preliminary injunction that had halted construction on the White House East Wing, finding that the National Trust for Historic Preservation was unlikely to have standing because its member's aesthetic disagreement with the construction did not constitute a concrete and particularized injury under Article III.

Judicial PowerNo. 26A203

The U.S. Supreme Court granted a stay of a District Court's injunction against an Executive Order on election integrity, finding that the government is likely to succeed on its argument that the plaintiff States lacked standing and ripeness to bring the suit.

Judicial PowerNo. 26A124

The Court addressed whether the Constitution guarantees citizenship to children born in the United States to parents who are unlawfully or temporarily present. The Court held that such children are "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States and are citizens at birth under the Fourteenth Amendment's Citizenship Clause.

ImmigrationNo. 25-365

The Court addressed whether the Federal Election Campaign Act's limits on political party spending coordinated with candidates violate the First Amendment. The Court held that these limits are unconstitutional, finding they are not proportionate, necessary, or narrowly tailored to prevent corruption, especially given other available tools like earmarking and disclosure laws.

First AmendmentNo. 24-621

The Court addressed whether Title IX and the Equal Protection Clause permit schools to maintain women's and girls' sports teams exclusively for biological females. The Court held that Title IX allows schools to provide separate sports teams defined by biological sex, and West Virginia permissibly maintained female sports for biological females consistent with Title IX.

Civil RightsNo. 24-43

The Supreme Court held that police officers conducted a Fourth Amendment search when they obtained an individual's cell-phone location data from Google via a geofence warrant, because individuals have a reasonable expectation of privacy in their cell-phone location information. The Court reasoned that this type of data provides a detailed and encyclopedic portrait of a person's movements, similar to or even more precise than the cell-site location information previously addressed in Carpenter v. United States.

Criminal ProcedureNo. 25-112
Trump v. Cook2026-06-29

The Court addressed whether a district court's preliminary injunction preventing the President from removing a Federal Reserve Board member should remain in effect. The Court denied the government's application, holding that the President's "for cause" removal power is not unreviewable and that the government was unlikely to prevail on its legal arguments.

Judicial PowerNo. 25A312

The case concerns the President's authority to remove Federal Trade Commission (FTC) commissioners. The Court held that the FTC's for-cause removal provision is unconstitutional, violating the separation of powers by limiting the President's ability to remove executive officers at will.

FederalismNo. 25-332

The Supreme Court addressed whether federal election-day statutes prevent Mississippi from counting absentee ballots postmarked by election day but received up to five days later. The Court held that federal law does not preempt Mississippi's statute, as nothing in the federal election-day statutes requires ballots to be received by election day.

FederalismNo. 24-1260

The Court addressed whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims against pesticide manufacturers. The Court held that FIFRA expressly preempts such claims if they would require a manufacturer to add a warning to a label that EPA has not required, as federal law mandates the use of EPA-approved labels.

FederalismNo. 24-1068

The Supreme Court addressed when an alien "arrives in the United States" for asylum and inspection purposes under the INA. The Court held that an alien arrives only when they cross the border, not when they are standing in Mexico attempting to enter, thus not entitling them to asylum application or inspection while still in Mexico.

ImmigrationNo. 25-5
Mullin v. Doe2026-06-25

The Supreme Court addressed whether individuals challenging the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Syria and Haiti are entitled to orders postponing these terminations during litigation. The Court held that the TPS statute bars judicial review of non-constitutional claims and that the equal protection claim regarding Haiti's TPS termination was unlikely to succeed.

ImmigrationNo. 25-1083

The Court addressed whether a Hawaii law prohibiting firearms on private property open to the public without express consent violates the Second and Fourteenth Amendments. The Court held that the law is unconstitutional because it imposes a significant burden on the right to carry handguns for self-defense, and Hawaii's historical analogues did not support its constitutionality.

Second AmendmentNo. 24-1046

The case questions whether individuals can be held personally liable under the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act (RLUIPA), a Spending Clause statute, without their voluntary and knowing consent to such liability. The Court held that individuals cannot be held liable in their personal capacities under a Spending Clause statute unless they have voluntarily and knowingly consented to answer lawsuits under that statute, and since the individual officers did not consent, the case against them cannot proceed.

First AmendmentNo. 23-1197
Blanche v. Lau2026-06-23

The Court addressed whether the Immigration and Nationality Act requires a border officer to have clear and convincing evidence that a lawful permanent resident committed a crime involving moral turpitude before deeming them an applicant for admission. The Court held that the INA does not impose such a burden on border officers, clarifying that the commission of the crime is sufficient at the initial stage, with conviction or admission required later to establish inadmissibility.

ImmigrationNo. 25-429

The Court addressed whether new causes of action for violations of international norms can be created under the Alien Tort Statute (ATS) and whether aiding and abetting liability applies under the Torture Victim Protection Act (TVPA). The Court held that courts may not create new causes of action under the ATS, emphasizing that the power to create causes of action belongs to Congress and that judicially created causes of action generally offend the separation of powers.

Judicial PowerNo. 24-856

Decisions from CourtListener (Free Law Project) — click a case for the full opinion. Issue area and summary are generated by an LLM (Gemini) from each opinion's official syllabus, so they reflect the actual ruling rather than a guess.

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The record

How VotePredictor SCOTUS is built, its full 1970–2025 walk-forward backtest, the academic benchmark, and every forecaster ranked: SCOTUS — the record.

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