Actual result
R+0.6
Final polls said
R+3.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | R+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ciruli Associates | R+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+3.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciruli Associates | 1998-10-28 | 500 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 831 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Ciruli Associates | 1998-10-22 | 500 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 614 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 1998-10-16 | 500 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 1998-10-12 | 607 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-11 | 804 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Ciruli Associates | 1998-10-06 | 407 | EVEN | 1 |