VotePredictor

Past elections

Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.

Year
Race type
State
116 races
RaceMatchupPollsModelResultCall
US President0R+1.5
US House0R+2.8
Iowa House0R+0.2
Pennsylvania Senate0R+0.2
Michigan Senate0D+0.3
Maine House0D+0.5
Colorado House0R+0.8
Wisconsin PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+0.8
Wisconsin Senate0D+0.9
Georgia Senate0D+0.9
Michigan PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+1.4
Pennsylvania House0R+1.6
Nevada Senate0D+1.7
Pennsylvania PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+1.7
Nebraska House0R+1.8
Alaska House0R+2.1
New York House0D+2.2
Ohio House0D+2.2
Georgia PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+2.2
Arizona Senate0D+2.4
Virginia House0D+2.6
New Hampshire PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+2.8
California House0D+2.8
Nevada PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+3.1
North Carolina PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+3.2
Ohio Senate0R+3.6
Michigan House0R+3.7
Virginia House0R+3.8
Iowa House0R+3.8
Minnesota PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+4.2
California House0D+4.4
Nebraska President0D+4.6
Arizona PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+5.5
Virginia PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+5.8
New Jersey PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+5.9
New Mexico PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+6.0
New Hampshire House0D+6.0
Michigan House0R+6.1
New York House0R+6.3
California House0R+6.8
Connecticut House0D+6.8
Nebraska Senate0R+6.8
Maine PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+6.9
Montana Senate0R+7.1
Montana House0R+7.7
New Hampshire House0D+8.0
New York House0D+8.0
Texas Senate0R+8.5
Illinois House0D+8.8
Virginia Senate0D+9.0
New York House0D+9.2
Alabama House0D+9.2
New Hampshire Governor0R+9.4
PR House0R+9.6
Maine President0R+9.6
Florida House0R+9.6
New Jersey Senate0D+9.6
New Mexico Senate0D+10.2
New York House0R+10.4
PR Governor0D+10.4
Colorado PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+10.9
Washington Governor0D+11.2
Ohio PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+11.2
Maryland Senate0D+11.9
New York PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+12.6
Georgia House0D+12.6
Florida Senate0R+12.8
Nebraska President0R+13.0
Florida PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+13.1
Iowa PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+13.3
Alaska PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+13.4
Texas PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+13.7
Rhode Island PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+13.8
Missouri Senate0R+13.8
Oregon PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+14.4
New York House0D+14.4
Florida House0R+14.6
Pennsylvania Governor0D+14.8
North Carolina Governor0D+14.8
Iowa House0R+15.6
Minnesota Senate0D+15.8
Maine Senate0D+17.5
South Carolina PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+17.8
California Senate0D+17.8
New York Senate0D+18.3
Washington PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+18.3
Missouri PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+18.4
Washington Senate0D+18.5
Massachusetts Senate0D+19.8
Montana PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+19.9
Rhode Island Senate0D+20.0
California PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+20.2
Nebraska House0R+20.2
Missouri Governor0R+20.4
Nebraska PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+20.5
California House0D+21.4
Utah PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+21.6
Maine President0D+21.8
Maine House0D+22.3
Utah Governor0R+24.4
Massachusetts PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+25.4
Maryland PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+28.8
South Dakota PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+29.2
Utah Senate0R+30.7
Vermont Senate0D+31.1
Vermont PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0D+31.8
Oklahoma PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+34.3
Iowa House0R+34.3
South Dakota House0R+44.0
Wyoming PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0R+46.2
Wyoming Senate0R+51.4
Vermont Governor0R+51.6
Nebraska President0R+53.8
Vermont House0D+54.8
Nebraska House0R+60.8
VI House0D+63.9