VotePredictor

Past elections

Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.

Year
Race type
State
116 races
RaceMatchupPollsModelResultCall
US President—0—R+1.5
US House—0—R+2.8
Iowa House—0—R+0.2
Pennsylvania Senate—0—R+0.2
Michigan Senate—0—D+0.3
Maine House—0—D+0.7
Colorado House—0—R+0.7
Wisconsin Senate—0—D+0.8
Wisconsin PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+0.9
Georgia Senate—0—D+0.9
Michigan PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+1.4
Pennsylvania House—0—R+1.6
Nevada Senate—0—D+1.6
Pennsylvania PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+1.7
Nebraska House—0—R+1.9
Georgia PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+2.2
Ohio House—0—D+2.2
New York House—0—D+2.3
Arizona Senate—0—D+2.4
Alaska House—0—R+2.5
Virginia House—0—D+2.6
New Hampshire PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+2.8
California House—0—D+2.9
Nevada PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+3.1
North Carolina PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+3.2
Ohio Senate—0—R+3.6
Michigan House—0—R+3.7
Iowa House—0—R+3.8
Virginia House—0—R+3.8
Minnesota PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+4.2
California House—0—D+4.3
Nebraska President—0—D+4.6
Arizona PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+5.5
Virginia PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+5.8
New Jersey PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+5.9
New Hampshire House—0—D+6.0
New Mexico PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+6.0
Michigan House—0—R+6.1
New York House—0—R+6.3
Nebraska Senate—0—R+6.8
Connecticut House—0—D+6.8
California House—0—R+6.8
Maine PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+6.9
Montana Senate—0—R+7.1
Montana House—0—R+7.7
New York House—0—D+8.0
New Hampshire House—0—D+8.1
Texas Senate—0—R+8.5
Illinois House—0—D+8.8
Virginia Senate—0—D+8.9
New York House—0—D+9.1
Alabama House—0—D+9.2
New Hampshire Governor—0—R+9.3
PR House—0—R+9.6
Maine President—0—R+9.6
New Jersey Senate—0—D+9.6
Florida House—0—R+9.7
New Mexico Senate—0—D+10.1
PR Governor—0—D+10.4
New York House—0—R+10.4
Colorado PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+11.0
Ohio PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+11.2
Washington Governor—0—D+11.2
Maryland Senate—0—D+11.8
New York PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+12.6
Georgia House—0—D+12.7
Florida Senate—0—R+12.8
Nebraska President—0—R+13.0
Florida PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+13.1
Alaska PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+13.1
Iowa PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+13.2
Texas PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+13.7
Missouri Senate—0—R+13.7
Rhode Island PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+13.8
Oregon PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+14.3
New York House—0—D+14.3
Florida House—0—R+14.5
Pennsylvania Governor—0—D+14.8
North Carolina Governor—0—D+14.8
Iowa House—0—R+15.6
Minnesota Senate—0—D+15.7
Maine Senate—0—D+17.5
California Senate—0—D+17.8
South Carolina PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+17.9
Washington PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+18.2
New York Senate—0—D+18.3
Missouri PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+18.4
Washington Senate—0—D+18.4
Massachusetts Senate—0—D+19.8
Montana PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+19.9
Rhode Island Senate—0—D+20.1
California PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+20.1
Nebraska House—0—R+20.2
Missouri Governor—0—R+20.4
Nebraska PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+20.5
California House—0—D+21.4
Utah PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+21.6
Maine President—0—D+21.8
Maine House—0—D+22.3
Utah Governor—0—R+24.4
Massachusetts PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+25.2
Maryland PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+28.5
South Dakota PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+29.2
Utah Senate—0—R+30.8
Vermont Senate—0—D+31.1
Vermont PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—D+31.5
Vermont House—0—D+32.5
Oklahoma PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+34.3
Iowa House—0—R+34.3
South Dakota House—0—R+44.1
Wyoming PresidentKamala D Harris (D) vs Donald J Trump (R)0—R+45.8
Wyoming Senate—0—R+51.0
Vermont Governor—0—R+51.6
Nebraska President—0—R+53.8
Nebraska House—0—R+60.8
VI House—0—D+63.9