VotePredictor

Past elections

Every polled Senate, Governor, House and presidential race back to 1998 — the actual result, the polls behind it, and how the model would have called it out-of-sample (trained only on earlier years). Filter by year, race type and state.

Year
Race type
State
116 races

In 2024, the model called 109/116 of these races right (94%) using only pre-2024 data.

RaceMatchupPollsModelResultCall
US President93R+0.5R+1.5
US House34R+1.6R+2.8
Iowa House1D+14.9R+0.2
Pennsylvania Senate34D+1.4R+0.2
Michigan Senate34D+1.7D+0.3
Maine House3D+4.2D+0.5
Colorado House1D+0.8R+0.8
Wisconsin President33R+2.1R+0.8
Wisconsin Senate27R+0.8D+0.9
Georgia Senate1D+3.5D+0.9
Michigan President39R+1.4R+1.4
Pennsylvania House1D+6.5R+1.6
Pennsylvania President40R+2.8R+1.7
Nevada Senate17D+3.4D+1.7
Nebraska House1D+2.6R+1.8
Alaska House3R+6.0R+2.1
Ohio House1D+1.8D+2.2
New York House2D+5.8D+2.2
Georgia President25R+4.5R+2.2
Arizona Senate26D+2.5D+2.4
Virginia House1D+1.9D+2.6
California House1D+1.1D+2.8
New Hampshire President7D+10.0D+2.8
Nevada President23R+4.3R+3.1
North Carolina President27R+4.9R+3.2
Ohio Senate9R+5.0R+3.6
Michigan House1R+2.9R+3.7
Virginia House2R+3.8R+3.8
Iowa House1D+5.9R+3.8
Minnesota President6D+3.2D+4.2
California House1D+12.7D+4.4
Nebraska President2D+9.9D+4.6
Arizona President32R+5.8R+5.5
Virginia President8D+4.5D+5.8
New Jersey President3D+15.5D+5.9
New Hampshire House3D+18.7D+6.0
New Mexico President3D+4.2D+6.0
Michigan House2R+4.4R+6.1
New York House1R+6.2R+6.3
California House1R+0.6R+6.8
Connecticut House1D+3.1D+6.8
Nebraska Senate6R+11.9R+6.8
Maine President2D+8.9D+6.9
Montana Senate2R+13.8R+7.1
Montana House1R+5.6R+7.7
New Hampshire House3D+16.4D+8.0
New York House3D+2.1D+8.0
Texas Senate8R+8.6R+8.5
Illinois House1D+4.7D+8.8
Virginia Senate7D+9.6D+9.0
Alabama House2D+6.0D+9.2
New York House1D+5.0D+9.2
New Hampshire Governor7R+0.8R+9.4
Florida House1R+2.3R+9.6
PR House6R+4.2R+9.6
Maine President3R+9.4R+9.6
New Jersey Senate4D+19.5D+9.6
New Mexico Senate2D+2.7D+10.2
PR Governor9D+2.1D+10.4
New York House1R+3.4R+10.4
Colorado President2D+12.9D+10.9
Ohio President10R+12.8R+11.2
Washington Governor2D+10.7D+11.2
Maryland Senate6D+15.0D+11.9
Georgia House1D+12.3D+12.6
New York President3D+17.5D+12.6
Florida Senate11R+11.1R+12.8
Nebraska President1R+14.7R+13.0
Florida President13R+11.2R+13.1
Iowa President3R+10.4R+13.3
Alaska President2R+17.0R+13.4
Texas President7R+13.6R+13.7
Rhode Island President1D+14.2D+13.8
Missouri Senate3R+14.8R+13.8
Oregon President1D+14.0D+14.4
New York House1D+11.2D+14.4
Florida House1R+13.7R+14.6
Pennsylvania Governor1D+13.3D+14.8
North Carolina Governor17D+13.7D+14.8
Iowa House1R+5.3R+15.6
Minnesota Senate5D+13.0D+15.8
Maine Senate2D+17.9D+17.5
South Carolina President2R+20.2R+17.8
California Senate3D+24.6D+17.8
Washington President2D+15.7D+18.3
New York Senate3D+24.2D+18.3
Missouri President2R+23.2R+18.4
Washington Senate2D+17.9D+18.5
Massachusetts Senate3D+24.6D+19.8
Montana President2R+27.9R+19.9
Rhode Island Senate1D+14.8D+20.0
Nebraska House1R+19.6R+20.2
California President3D+29.0D+20.2
Missouri Governor2R+20.2R+20.4
Nebraska President4R+23.9R+20.5
California House1D+36.9D+21.4
Utah President2R+32.7R+21.6
Maine President2D+22.1D+21.8
Maine House2D+30.3D+22.3
Utah Governor2R+33.3R+24.4
Massachusetts President3D+29.0D+25.4
Maryland President5D+29.8D+28.8
South Dakota President1R+33.6R+29.2
Utah Senate2R+38.6R+30.7
Vermont Senate1D+39.3D+31.1
Vermont President1D+33.9D+31.8
Oklahoma President1R+43.2R+34.3
Iowa House1R+22.8R+34.3
South Dakota House1R+39.2R+44.0
Wyoming President1R+50.2R+46.2
Wyoming Senate1R+54.3R+51.4
Vermont Governor1R+47.8R+51.6
Nebraska President1R+50.9R+53.8
Vermont House1D+39.3D+54.8
Nebraska House1R+51.1R+60.8
VI House1D+64.2D+63.9