Actual result
D+8.4
Final polls said
R+5.0
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+3.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Marketing Workshop | R+5.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+7.0 | 15.4 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 1408 | R+7.0 | 15 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 809 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| Marketing Workshop | 1998-10-26 | 709 | R+5.0 | 13 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1174 | R+5.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-06 | 807 | R+4.0 | 12 |
| Marketing Workshop | 1998-09-28 | 690 | R+6.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-07 | 829 | R+1.0 | 9 |