Actual result
R+37.1
Final polls said
R+47.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+44.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scripps Howard | R+45.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Blum & Weprin Associates | R+47.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hill Research Consultants | R+47.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+48.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 3579 | R+48.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-29 | 504 | R+44.0 | 7 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 1998-10-28 | 967 | R+47.0 | 10 |
| Hill Research Consultants | 1998-10-27 | 501 | R+47.0 | 10 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 3248 | R+51.0 | 14 |
| Scripps Howard | 1998-10-12 | 764 | R+45.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-10 | 802 | R+46.0 | 9 |