Actual result
D+24.9
Final polls said
D+29.6
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+22.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+28.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fleming & Associates | D+30.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Research Institute Inc. | D+36.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Independent Market Research | D+36.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 2819 | D+22.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 822 | D+28.0 | 3 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 1998-10-22 | 670 | D+36.0 | 11 |
| Independent Market Research | 1998-10-22 | 670 | D+36.0 | 11 |
| Fleming & Associates | 1998-10-22 | 557 | D+30.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 2295 | D+29.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-17 | 836 | D+26.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-23 | 815 | D+29.0 | 4 |