Actual result
D+16.8
Final polls said
D+9.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FM3 Research | D+13.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elway Research | D+7.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | D+2.0 | 14.8 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 1523 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 801 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 831 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-05 | 810 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| FM3 Research | 1998-09-25 | 800 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Moore Information Group | 1998-09-24 | 679 | D+2.0 | 15 |
| Elway Research | 1998-09-20 | 475 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-08 | 812 | D+16.0 | 1 |