Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+7.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+9.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+10.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+10.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Richmond Times-Dispatch | D+13.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2001-11-03 | 500 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2001-10-30 | 633 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Richmond Times-Dispatch | 2001-10-29 | 481 | D+13.0 | 8 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2001-10-26 | 423 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2001-10-24 | 1010 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2001-10-16 | 625 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2001-10-10 | 608 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2001-10-03 | 608 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2001-10-03 | 800 | D+4.0 | 1 |