Actual result
D+3.0
Final polls said
D+3.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | D+0.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mellman Group | D+6.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Tennessee | EVEN | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+8.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ethridge & Associates LLC | R+2.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-27 | 726 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 625 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Ethridge & Associates LLC | 2002-10-20 | 819 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-20 | 726 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Mellman Group | 2002-10-19 | 600 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| University of Tennessee | 2002-10-10 | 504 | EVEN | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-06 | 726 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-24 | 726 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2002-09-19 | 605 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-18 | 625 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2002-09-12 | 500 | D+0.6 | 2 |
| University of Tennessee | 2002-09-07 | 504 | D+8.0 | 5 |