Actual result
D+7.5
Final polls said
D+0.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.9 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | R+2.8 | 10.3 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-25 | 800 | R+2.8 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-20 | 800 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-26 | 500 | D+8.5 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-21 | 800 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-08 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-05-19 | 503 | D+11.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-05-11 | 625 | D+9.0 | 8 |