Actual result
D+13.0
Final polls said
D+14.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+11.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | D+9.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+21.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 607 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2004-10-25 | 455 | D+21.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-25 | 625 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-06 | 583 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2004-10-03 | 809 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-20 | 400 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-18 | 598 | EVEN | 13 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-08 | 600 | D+9.0 | 4 |