Actual result
R+7.2
Final polls said
R+4.9
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.4 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+4.2 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Market Research Institute Inc. | R+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Gallup | R+14.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 694 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 1316 | R+4.2 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2004-10-24 | 553 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 680 | R+7.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-18 | 625 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 670 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-15 | 625 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 1066 | R+3.1 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-13 | 400 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 683 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 709 | R+2.2 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-28 | 400 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-18 | 600 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 709 | R+5.4 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-15 | 625 | R+7.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 660 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-05 | 686 | R+14.0 | 7 |