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Toss-up · 2004 President
North Carolina President
In the 2004 North Carolina President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.4
Final polls said
R+7.7
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+12.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+9.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Tyson Group | R+8.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+5.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Lake Research Partners | EVEN | 12.4 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
14 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-304
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-253
SurveyUSA2004-10-232
The Tyson Group2004-10-194
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-184
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 North Carolina President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 12.4 points (R+12.4).
When was the 2004 North Carolina President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.