Actual result
R+12.4
Final polls said
R+7.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+12.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+9.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+8.5 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Tyson Group | R+8.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | R+5.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Lake Research Partners | EVEN | 12.4 | ✗ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 620 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-25 | 625 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-23 | 694 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| The Tyson Group | 2004-10-19 | 600 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-18 | 625 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 627 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 628 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-27 | 625 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-26 | 500 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-26 | 600 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2004-09-16 | 800 | EVEN | 12 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-15 | 600 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-07 | 587 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-07 | 445 | R+13.0 | 1 |