Actual result
D+7.2
Final polls said
D+7.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+7.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gallup | D+8.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elway Research | D+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | D+11.2 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Moore Information Group | D+2.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 622 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 1832 | D+11.2 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-25 | 800 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 618 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 634 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Elway Research | 2004-10-15 | 405 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 1440 | D+10.4 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-12 | 400 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Moore Information Group | 2004-10-03 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 640 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 1418 | D+9.9 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 627 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2004-09-19 | 406 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Moore Information Group | 2004-09-19 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Elway Research | 2004-09-18 | 405 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-16 | 400 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 1319 | D+8.7 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-11 | 600 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Gallup | 2004-09-05 | 646 | D+8.0 | 1 |