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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Kentucky Senate
In the 2004 Kentucky Senate race, Jim Bunning (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.3
Final polls said
R+6.0
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Louisville Courier-Journal | R+6.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-298
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2004-10-230
Louisville Courier-Journal2004-10-195
SurveyUSA2004-10-1813
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2004-10-161
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Kentucky Senate race?
Jim Bunning (R) won, by about 1.3 points (R+1.3).
When was the 2004 Kentucky Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.