Actual result
R+1.3
Final polls said
R+6.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Louisville Courier-Journal | R+6.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.5 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 631 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-10-23 | 502 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2004-10-19 | 690 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 623 | R+14.0 | 13 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-10-16 | 679 | EVEN | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-13 | 600 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-10-06 | 679 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 615 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2004-09-12 | 657 | R+17.0 | 16 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 659 | R+19.0 | 18 |