Actual result
D+27.1
Final polls said
D+22.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+28.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | D+33.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+21.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+34.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+20.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+19.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | D+43.0 | 15.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | D+8.6 | 18.5 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-01 | 560 | D+19.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+28.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 798 | D+16.0 | 11 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 644 | D+8.6 | 19 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2006-10-21 | 1019 | D+43.0 | 16 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-15 | 500 | D+21.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-15 | 474 | D+19.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+9.5 | 18 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2006-10-13 | 403 | D+33.0 | 6 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2006-09-30 | 625 | D+34.0 | 7 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2006-09-23 | 882 | D+36.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-17 | 472 | D+16.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-17 | 500 | D+18.0 | 9 |