Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.7
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.7 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Greg Smith & Associates | D+5.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Smith & Associates | 2006-10-29 | 525 | D+5.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-24 | 625 | R+1.0 | 8 |