Actual result
D+10.5
Final polls said
D+10.7
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glengariff Group | D+9.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.8 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.6 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Market Shares Corp. | D+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Richard Day Research | D+16.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+22.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | KRC Research | D+30.0 | 19.5 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-02 | 500 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2006-11-01 | 800 | D+22.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-31 | 434 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-30 | 625 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2006-10-28 | 600 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 583 | D+6.6 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-21 | 578 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Richard Day Research | 2006-10-19 | 603 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-15 | 500 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Glengariff Group | 2006-10-14 | 600 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+13.9 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-11 | 500 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2006-10-10 | 600 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-20 | 625 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-18 | 529 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| KRC Research | 2006-09-11 | 400 | D+30.0 | 19 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2006-09-09 | 600 | D+12.0 | 1 |