Actual result
R+4.0
Final polls said
R+4.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+2.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+6.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+0.9 | 4.9 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 402 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-31 | 500 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-28 | 625 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 485 | D+0.9 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-17 | 500 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | R+5.2 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-20 | 625 | R+9.0 | 5 |