Actual result
D+8.0
Final polls said
D+6.7
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+8.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | DHM Research | D+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Riley Research Associates | D+11.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+4.6 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | D+0.6 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Moore Information Group | EVEN | 8.0 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 502 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| DHM Research | 2006-10-30 | 600 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-28 | 500 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 755 | D+0.6 | 7 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2006-10-21 | 445 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+3.7 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-27 | 500 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2006-09-24 | 471 | R+2.0 | 10 |
| DHM Research | 2006-09-24 | 600 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-18 | 500 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Moore Information Group | 2006-09-15 | 1000 | EVEN | 8 |