Actual result
D+38.9
Final polls said
D+31.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+27.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middle Tennessee State University | D+38.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gallup | D+40.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+40.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+35.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+35.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+32.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+28.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+27.1 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | D+22.0 | 16.9 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 679 | D+28.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-02 | 625 | D+35.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 502 | D+32.0 | 7 |
| Big Village | 2006-10-28 | 541 | D+22.0 | 17 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-23 | 780 | D+37.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-19 | 625 | D+35.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-08 | 539 | D+31.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-30 | 500 | D+35.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 598 | D+40.0 | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2006-09-25 | 549 | D+38.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-25 | 625 | D+41.0 | 2 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2006-09-22 | 605 | D+40.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-10 | 638 | D+33.0 | 6 |