Actual result
D+5.9
Final polls said
D+5.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+5.7 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lycoming College Polling Institute | D+9.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+12.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+14.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Momentum Analysis | R+6.0 | 11.9 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 442 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Lycoming College Polling Institute | 2006-10-24 | 643 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Momentum Analysis | 2006-10-22 | 400 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-10-21 | 326 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| Momentum Analysis | 2006-10-10 | 400 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-08 | 400 | D+14.0 | 8 |
| Lycoming College Polling Institute | 2006-09-26 | 804 | D+9.0 | 3 |