Actual result
R+1.3
Final polls said
D+4.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.3 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+1.0 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.0 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | RT Strategies | D+5.0 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+12.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1006 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2006-10-22 | 404 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-03 | 442 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 442 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-25 | 400 | R+12.0 | 11 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-09-22 | 349 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-13 | 400 | R+11.0 | 10 |