Actual result
D+22.2
Final polls said
D+25.4
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+21.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+23.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+21.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+24.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+26.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | D+26.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+17.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | D+29.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | D+35.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 682 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-11-01 | 804 | D+29.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 1005 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-31 | 625 | D+24.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 952 | D+14.1 | 8 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2006-10-24 | 800 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-20 | 816 | D+35.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-16 | 625 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+17.3 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-08 | 514 | D+18.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-05 | 783 | D+28.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-02 | 500 | D+17.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-22 | 500 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+17.4 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-21 | 625 | D+18.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-12 | 512 | D+15.0 | 7 |