Actual result
R+14.4
Final polls said
R+14.1
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+13.5 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+17.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+21.5 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 402 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-31 | 500 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-28 | 625 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 485 | R+21.5 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-17 | 500 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | R+8.9 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-20 | 625 | R+23.0 | 9 |