Actual result
D+16.9
Final polls said
D+13.2
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+16.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elway Research | D+18.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+14.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+12.1 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Washington Center for Survey Research | D+12.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+3.9 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 804 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2006-10-28 | 700 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-28 | 774 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | D+3.9 | 13 |
| Elway Research | 2006-10-20 | 405 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-18 | 625 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-17 | 500 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-14 | 848 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+6.4 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-26 | 625 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Elway Research | 2006-09-23 | 405 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-23 | 481 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+6.9 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-20 | 500 | D+6.0 | 11 |