Actual result
R+8.5
Final polls said
R+4.3
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | R+8.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.4 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Big Village | R+6.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Grove Insight | R+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | R+2.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | R+2.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2008-10-29 | 600 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-27 | 625 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-26 | 500 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2008-10-25 | 1019 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 807 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 682 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-23 | 600 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Northern Arizona University Social Research Laboratory | 2008-10-22 | 600 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | 2008-10-18 | 408 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-29 | 500 | R+21.0 | 12 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2008-09-27 | 976 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-13 | 600 | R+17.0 | 8 |