Actual result
D+24.1
Final polls said
D+22.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+23.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+24.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+23.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+23.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+22.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+27.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | D+14.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-30 | 637 | D+24.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 999 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-25 | 500 | D+27.0 | 3 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2008-10-23 | 966 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2008-10-16 | 1186 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-15 | 615 | D+24.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-09 | 500 | D+16.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 670 | D+16.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-23 | 661 | D+10.0 | 14 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-22 | 500 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-19 | 600 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2008-09-13 | 1157 | D+10.0 | 14 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2008-09-09 | 830 | D+16.0 | 8 |