Actual result
D+8.9
Final polls said
D+7.1
17 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GfK Group | D+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | InsiderAdvantage | D+8.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+7.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+7.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Big Village | D+7.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+12.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | FTI Consulting | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Suffolk University | D+4.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Ciruli Associates | D+1.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | Zogby Analytics | EVEN | 8.9 | ✗ |
Polls (42)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-11-02 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 2023 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-29 | 600 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-27 | 682 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-26 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-26 | 636 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-25 | 409 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 685 | D+15.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 774 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 626 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-20 | 576 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 951 | EVEN | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-19 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-16 | 700 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-13 | 762 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-12 | 450 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 980 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-10 | 1088 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-09 | 1331 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-10-06 | 485 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-05 | 997 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-05 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-30 | 625 | EVEN | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-28 | 500 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-24 | 600 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 700 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-23 | 505 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-22 | 794 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2008-09-21 | 501 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-20 | 1084 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-18 | 1418 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-17 | 508 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-14 | 500 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-13 | 402 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-12 | 600 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 825 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-10 | 501 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-08 | 1078 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-07 | 500 | D+3.0 | 6 |