Actual result
D+9.5
Final polls said
D+12.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+11.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+11.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | D+7.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Ten | D+13.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+14.9 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Selzer & Co. | D+17.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-10-30 | 814 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-28 | 658 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 795 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-23 | 645 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-23 | 500 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-22 | 625 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Big Ten | 2008-10-21 | 586 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-08 | 692 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-25 | 700 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2008-09-20 | 467 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-19 | 600 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-17 | 702 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Big Ten | 2008-09-16 | 643 | EVEN | 10 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2008-09-09 | 616 | D+12.0 | 2 |