Actual result
R+16.2
Final polls said
R+11.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+16.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.8 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+20.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+12.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+9.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-31 | 616 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-29 | 500 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 817 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 486 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-21 | 500 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-19 | 535 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-30 | 500 | R+10.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-24 | 717 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-21 | 672 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-10 | 600 | R+20.0 | 4 |