Actual result
R+18.6
Final polls said
R+9.6
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+16.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | R+12.3 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+9.8 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+7.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | R+3.0 | 15.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | 2008-10-25 | 500 | R+3.0 | 16 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 436 | R+7.0 | 12 |
| Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | 2008-10-22 | 503 | R+12.3 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-21 | 500 | R+16.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-25 | 500 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-11 | 600 | R+7.0 | 12 |