Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.5 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+14.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | D+2.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | DFM Research | D+3.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 271 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| DFM Research | 2008-10-13 | 504 | D+3.0 | 12 |
| Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | 2008-10-07 | 606 | D+2.0 | 11 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-16 | 600 | R+9.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-08 | 500 | R+14.0 | 5 |