Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+10.6
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+11.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Big Village | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+11.6 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+12.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | D+13.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+14.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | American Research Group | D+15.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | GfK Group | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | FTI Consulting | D+1.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-11-01 | 812 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-30 | 700 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-29 | 600 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 682 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-28 | 692 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-28 | 600 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 516 | D+14.0 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-25 | 692 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 600 | D+18.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-24 | 625 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-23 | 700 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2008-10-22 | 655 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-21 | 525 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-10-20 | 725 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-19 | 466 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-10-11 | 455 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2008-10-07 | 600 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-05 | 813 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 647 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-01 | 700 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2008-09-27 | 823 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 700 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-09-22 | 600 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-20 | 403 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2008-09-19 | 604 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2008-09-18 | 475 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-14 | 600 | R+3.0 | 13 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2008-09-11 | 433 | R+6.0 | 16 |
| Big Village | 2008-09-08 | 899 | D+5.0 | 5 |