Actual result
R+8.4
Final polls said
R+7.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+9.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+10.6 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | R+5.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+16.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-30 | 500 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2008-10-27 | 613 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 352 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-14 | 800 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-20 | 600 | R+16.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-09 | 500 | R+17.0 | 9 |