Actual result
R+28.2
Final polls said
R+25.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+28.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+27.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+25.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+32.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+23.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+36.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-10-27 | 1205 | R+25.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 395 | R+27.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-24 | 625 | R+23.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-12 | 600 | R+36.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-10 | 500 | R+32.0 | 4 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2008-09-10 | 601 | R+38.0 | 10 |