Actual result
R+32.2
Final polls said
R+29.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+30.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+30.5 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+38.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+38.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+26.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+21.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+19.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 246 | R+38.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-18 | 604 | R+21.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-13 | 625 | R+26.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-10 | 600 | R+38.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-09 | 500 | R+19.0 | 13 |