Actual result
R+5.9
Final polls said
R+5.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.9 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+9.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-31 | 616 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-29 | 500 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 817 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2008-10-26 | 502 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 486 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-21 | 500 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-19 | 535 | EVEN | 6 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2008-10-07 | 800 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2008-10-06 | 501 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-30 | 500 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-24 | 717 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-21 | 672 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2008-09-08 | 900 | R+17.0 | 11 |