Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+11.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+10.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+10.4 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | D+1.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | D+15.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | D+19.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mellman Group | D+20.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. | 2008-10-28 | 500 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | 2008-10-25 | 500 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 436 | D+13.0 | 7 |
| Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | 2008-10-22 | 503 | D+19.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-21 | 500 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Mellman Group | 2008-10-17 | 600 | D+20.0 | 14 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2008-10-15 | 500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-25 | 500 | D+13.0 | 7 |