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Toss-up · 2008 Senate
North Carolina Senate
In the 2008 North Carolina Senate race, Kay R. Hagan (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+8.5
Final polls said
D+3.7
16 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Village | D+9.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elon University | D+7.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+6.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Impact Research | D+5.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | GfK Group | D+4.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Tyson Group | D+2.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | FTI Consulting | D+2.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Marshall Marketing | D+0.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 9.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 10.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
33 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2008-11-011
Public Policy Polling2008-11-011
Elon University2008-10-291
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-292
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2008-10-289
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2008 North Carolina Senate race?
Kay R. Hagan (D) won, by about 8.5 points (D+8.5).
When was the 2008 North Carolina Senate election held?
It was held in November 2008.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.