Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.5
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | DHM Research | D+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Grove Insight | D+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Riley Research Associates | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-30 | 500 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 1424 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-29 | 700 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Moore Information Group | 2008-10-27 | 400 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 698 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-25 | 672 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| DHM Research | 2008-10-24 | 500 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2008-10-15 | 499 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-14 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-11 | 584 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Grove Insight | 2008-10-08 | 600 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 708 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-15 | 700 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| DHM Research | 2008-09-13 | 500 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-09-08 | 702 | D+2.0 | 1 |