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Toss-up · 2008 Senate
Oregon Senate
In the 2008 Oregon Senate race, Jeff Merkley (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.5
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | DHM Research | D+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Grove Insight | D+5.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Riley Research Associates | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Moore Information Group | R+4.0 | 7.3 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2008-10-300
Public Policy Polling2008-10-295
SurveyUSA2008-10-294
Moore Information Group2008-10-277
YouGov2008-10-252
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2008 Oregon Senate race?
Jeff Merkley (D) won, by about 3.4 points (D+3.4).
When was the 2008 Oregon Senate election held?
It was held in November 2008.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.