Actual result
R+3.6
Final polls said
D+0.1
23 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.4
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+5.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | R+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+6.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Neighborhood Research and Media | R+7.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+0.4 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+1.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | The New York Times | D+1.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+3.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | GQR | D+6.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | D+9.0 | 12.6 | ✗ |
Polls (43)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2009-10-31 | 722 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| GQR | 2009-10-31 | 606 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-31 | 582 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-10-31 | 994 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2009-10-29 | 1041 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2009-10-29 | 1533 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2009-10-29 | 780 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-10-29 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Neighborhood Research and Media | 2009-10-28 | 341 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2009-10-28 | 1093 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| GQR | 2009-10-27 | 604 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2009-10-27 | 1119 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-27 | 640 | EVEN | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-10-26 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2009-10-25 | 694 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-10-25 | 630 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2009-10-24 | 400 | D+9.0 | 13 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2009-10-23 | 1267 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2009-10-21 | 604 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-20 | 674 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-10-19 | 750 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2009-10-17 | 583 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2009-10-17 | 1005 | EVEN | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-10-14 | 750 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-13 | 611 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times | 2009-10-11 | 475 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-10-11 | 571 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2009-10-09 | 1264 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Neighborhood Research and Media | 2009-10-07 | 300 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2009-10-06 | 614 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2009-10-06 | 639 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-10-05 | 750 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2009-10-02 | 667 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| PSB Research | 2009-10-02 | 671 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2009-09-26 | 527 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2009-09-25 | 1188 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2009-09-22 | 601 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-09-21 | 500 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Neighborhood Research and Media | 2009-09-16 | 347 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2009-09-13 | 500 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2009-09-09 | 500 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2009-09-09 | 531 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| GQR | 2009-09-08 | 615 | R+3.0 | 1 |