Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
EVEN
17 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+0.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | EVEN | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | R+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Village | R+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 8 | EMC Research | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 9 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+4.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+4.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Florida Poll | R+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | Zogby Analytics | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | D+6.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | D+7.0 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Polls (37)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-31 | 1526 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 548 | EVEN | 1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-30 | 1527 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 773 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-28 | 925 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 826 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 750 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-26 | 625 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| The Florida Poll | 2010-10-25 | 696 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-24 | 1547 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-21 | 784 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-20 | 1514 | EVEN | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2010-10-20 | 802 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-18 | 750 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-17 | 577 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-17 | 798 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-16 | 500 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-12 | 2000 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2010-10-11 | 700 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-09 | 448 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-07 | 1055 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-07 | 750 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-05 | 625 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-30 | 750 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-09-30 | 1003 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-29 | 800 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2010-09-28 | 802 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| EMC Research | 2010-09-26 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-26 | 786 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-25 | 1151 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-22 | 750 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-21 | 625 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-14 | 750 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-11 | 486 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-11 | 1000 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-09-04 | 1016 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-04 | 899 | D+7.0 | 8 |