Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+17.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+11.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | R+11.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+14.5 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+16.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+16.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | ccAdvertising | R+16.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+6.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+23.0 | 11.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | R+24.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ipsos | R+29.0 | 17.3 | ✓ |
Polls (21)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 682 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 711 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-26 | 625 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-25 | 750 | R+23.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-23 | 773 | R+24.0 | 12 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-20 | 1884 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-17 | 750 | R+19.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-11 | 750 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-11 | 625 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-09 | 500 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-08 | 504 | R+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-05 | 750 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-03 | 789 | R+23.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-28 | 750 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-22 | 500 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-21 | 625 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-13 | 750 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-12 | 789 | R+27.0 | 15 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-11 | 1000 | R+18.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-11 | 463 | R+29.0 | 17 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-08 | 625 | R+16.0 | 4 |