Actual result
R+12.7
Final polls said
R+10.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blum & Weprin Associates | R+12.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Strategies Inc. | R+14.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+14.3 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.9 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+9.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+9.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Texas Lyceum | R+5.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-27 | 568 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2010-10-24 | 673 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-21 | 750 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-12 | 1510 | R+14.3 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-06 | 750 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| Public Strategies Inc. | 2010-09-29 | 704 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| Texas Lyceum | 2010-09-26 | 416 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-22 | 500 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Blum & Weprin Associates | 2010-09-19 | 692 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2010-09-05 | 800 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-04 | 538 | R+6.0 | 7 |