Actual result
R+9.7
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+7.5
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | D+6.0 | 15.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+7.5 | 17.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Greg Smith & Associates | D+10.0 | 19.7 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Smith & Associates | 2010-10-29 | 400 | D+10.0 | 20 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-21 | 400 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Moore Information Group | 2010-10-05 | 300 | D+6.0 | 16 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-14 | 400 | D+10.0 | 20 |